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Q: sale price appreciation luxury homes san francisco past twenthy years ( Answered,   0 Comments )
Subject: sale price appreciation luxury homes san francisco past twenthy years
Category: Business and Money > Consulting
Asked by: kidtwit49-ga
List Price: $200.00
Posted: 21 Oct 2006 00:23 PDT
Expires: 19 Nov 2006 23:23 PST
Question ID: 775533
How can I track price appreciation luxury home sales san francisco
over last twenty years? What has been the rate of appreciation in this
market segment? Is there information available on number of foreign
nationals--esp. from China--buying property in Bay Area?
Subject: Re: sale price appreciation luxury homes san francisco past twenthy years
Answered By: umiat-ga on 21 Oct 2006 15:57 PDT
Hello, kidtwit49-ga! 

 The First Republic Prestige Home Index provides historical price data
on the luxury home market in San Francisco from 1985 to 2006. You can
also view similar data for Los Angeles and San Diego.

"The First Republic Prestige Home Index for San Francisco is based on
a portfolio representing a cross-section of homes valued at $1 million
or more in eight Bay Area counties.

"Values of properties in the portfolio were traced back to 1985 using
regression analysis and then calculated for each year as well as for
each quarter since the fourth quarter of 1994."

"For each home in the portfolio, a market evaluation was performed for
each time period taking into account repeat sales, comparable sales,
and characteristics such as size of house."

To view the index and the chart graph, click on the following link:


2006 	6/06 	$2,938,155 	       507.85
        3/06 	$2,929,064 	       506.28
2005 	12/05 	$2,882,377 	       498.21
         9/05 	$2,854,958 	       493.47
         6/05 	$2,803,177 	       484.52
         3/05 	$2,697,608 	       466.27
2004 	12/04 	$2,545,726 	       440.02
         9/04 	$2,528,261 	       437.00
         6/04 	$2,540,039 	       439.04
         3/04 	$2,368,963 	       409.47
2003 	12/03 	$2,238,037 	       386.84
         9/03 	$2,229,646 	       385.39
         6/03 	$2,183,001 	       377.32
         3/03 	$2,187,921 	       378.17
2002 	12/02 	$2,231,002 	       385.62
         9/02 	$2,237,636 	       386.77
         6/02 	$2,185,239 	       377.71
         3/02 	$2,124,130 	       367.15
2001 	12/01 	$2,152,923 	       372.12
         9/01 	$2,215,195 	       382.89
         6/01 	$2,394,901 	       413.95
         3/01 	$2,375,845 	       410.66
2000 	12/00 	$2,316,256 	       400.36
         9/00 	$2,225,161 	       384.61
         6/00 	$1,942,700 	       335.79
         3/00 	$1,826,029 	       315.62
1999 	12/99 	$1,668,861 	       288.45
         9/99 	$1,599,041 	       276.39
         6/99 	$1,508,035 	       260.66
         3/99 	$1,463,841 	       253.02
1998 	12/98 	$1,467,673 	       253.68
         9/98 	$1,449,154 	       250.48
         6/98 	$1,383,616 	       239.15
         3/98 	$1,301,132 	       224.90
1997 	12/97 	$1,252,723 	       216.53
         9/97 	$1,251,730 	       216.36
         6/97 	$1,196,828 	       206.87
         3/97 	$1,139,787 	       197.01
1996 	12/96 	$1,144,309 	       197.79
         9/96 	$1,158,681 	       200.27
         6/96 	$1,122,409 	       194.00
         3/96 	$1,102,943 	       190.64
1995 	12/95 	$1,093,238 	       188.96
         9/95 	$1,108,235 	       191.55
         6/95 	$1,131,634 	       195.60
         3/95 	$1,127,199 	       194.83
1994 	12/94 	$1,095,942 	       189.43
         3/94 	$1,060,826 	       183.36
1993 	3/93 	$1,042,186 	       180.14
1992 	3/92 	$1,064,530 	       184.00
1991 	3/91 	$1,080,276 	       186.72
1990 	3/90 	$1,143,395 	       197.63
1989 	3/89 	$ 966,581 	       172.26
1988 	3/88 	$ 833,585 	       144.08
1987 	3/87 	$ 708,250 	       122.42
1986 	3/86 	$ 628,590 	       108.65
1985 	3/85 	$ 578,548 	       100.00 


From "Increases in Luxury Home Values Slowed in First Quarter of 2006
- Second Consecutive Quarter of Slight Gains in Los Angeles, San Diego
and San Francisco." May 24, 2006

San Francisco Bay Area Values:

"In the San Francisco Bay Area, the market is still showing signs of
strength. Luxury home values rose 1.6% in first quarter of 2006, 1% in
the fourth quarter of 2005, and 1.8% in the third quarter of 2005."

"David Papale of Ritchie Hallanan in San Francisco said that despite
the relatively flat market, demand continues to outstrip supply in
certain segments of the luxury market. "Between $1.5 million and $2.5
million, there simply isn?t enough inventory. The offers are
competitive, and in some instances, they are still going over the
asking price. Above $5 million, the market is warm, but no longer red
hot." Papale said that many sellers are now pricing their properties
more realistically because the frantic pace of buying has subsided."

"Joel Goodrich of TRI Coldwell in San Francisco agreed that the market
started to soften in the fourth quarter of 2005. "The market is
looking for direction. In San Francisco, we?re somewhat correlated to
the stock market, and it has been a choppy year. I don?t see much
movement in luxury home prices one way or another for 2006."


Information on foreign buyers of luxury homes in the Bay Area is
extremely sketchy. I don't know that anyone (anywhere) keeps track of
actual numbers. The following excerpt from Real Estate Journal backs
up my suspicions about the lack of hard data:

"While no one keeps records of how many foreign buyers are entering
the U.S. market, brokers say foreigners prefer resorts or second-homes
markets over most major cities..."

While I have provided what little information I was able to find
below, it is very general.

I suggest you contact someone from First Republic Bank (publishers of
the Prestige Index) or one of the top luxury real estate agents in the
Bay area. They might be able to provide you with a rough percentage or
"perception" of the number of foreign buyers in this local market.

(I think it is best for you to contact them directly so you can
provide them with the reasons you are seeking this information)


From 2004:

"Luxury home values in Southern California were exceptionally strong
in the third quarter of 2004," said Katherine August-deWilde, Chief
Operating Officer of First Republic Bank. "Limited inventory in the
most desirable areas of Southern California, coupled with strong
demand from both domestic and *** international homebuyers ***, is
fueling the market. In San Francisco, the market remains solid."


According to a 2003 report by the The National Association of
Realtors, only three precent percent of luxury home buyers in the U.S.
are foreign born. Coupled with the fact that many luxury home buyers
pay cash, there is not much of a trail to follow in terms of "who" is
buying in these high-end markets!

"Seven out of 10 luxury homebuyers (72 percent) hail from the same
state where they buy their new home, and 55 percent are from the same
city. Twenty-four percent come from out of state, while three percent
come from another country,

** while three percent come from another country."

Read "Luxury Home Buyers Often Pay Cash, And Other Revelations," by
Blanche Evans,


Foreign investment in the San Francisco luxury market:

"Resale condos in desirable buildings, which sell for about $800,000
for a one-bedroom and $1 million for a two-bedroom, can still attract
multiple offers, she says. Buyers include investors from Hong Kong and
other Asian cities who buy condos to rent out, or for their children
to use while in California for college."

Read "A Superheated Market Softens, But Prices Remain High," By Julie
Bennett. 9/2006.


From an article concerning the luxury second home market:

San Francisco - "The two main groups moving into the city are people
from the Bay Area and investors, who can be local or from overseas
(primarily from Asia)."


From "The Ghosts of San Francisco Present - With the city a top
second-home destination, certain neighborhoods are starting to get
eerily quiet," By Carol Lloyd.

'According to real estate consultant Carole Rodoni, last year nearly 7
percent of the single-family homes sold in town were not for primary
residence. (In 1999 the number was closer to 2 percent.) Experts say
that while most second-home buyers are from the greater Bay Area, they
are increasinly coming from foreign cities like Hong Kong where
interstellar prices make San Francisco seem as affordable as a
subdivision in Oklahoma City.


Overseas buyers:

"For overseas buyers, however, Bay Area prices are bargains. And those
buyers may be playing a key role in bolstering the market."

"Lee Julien, an agent at Herth Real Estate who Tuesday was showing a
Hayes Valley Victorian listed for $1.2 million, said easily 10 percent
of his buyers are from outside the United States."

"I can't tell you how many buyers I have from Singapore or London,"
Julien said. "They come here and they look at a house like this and
they say, 'This in London would cost $4.2 million.' "

Read "Bay Area home prices increase 20%, sales skyrocket - Low
interest rates, overseas buyers lift market even higher," by Kelly
Zito, San Francisco Chronicle. February 16, 2005


From "As Buyer Pool Shrinks, U.S. Sellers Look Abroad," By June
Fletcher. The Wall Street Journal Online

"It's also standard protocol in some other countries to "lowball" a
property, typically offering about half of what a home is listed for.
That means that haggling can take on a larger role, with some foreign
buyers bargaining up to the very end. "Don't be surprised if the buyer
asks for the Ferrari at the closing table," says Olivia Hsu Decker, a
broker in San Francisco."


From Luxury Outlook 2006," By Camilla McLaughlint:

"International buyers continue to flock to U.S. real estate markets.
This is especially true in Florida, New York, San Francisco and
Boston, where luxury properties are even eyed by parents of foreign
students. Dont expect this trend to abate anytime soon. South American
buyers in particular see our markets as particularly stable


Just a blog snippet

"According to realtors, there are a lot of foreign buyers seeking to
buy homes in the Bay Area, particularly from Singapore and London."


The Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE) website
has some "general" information which might be of interest to you,
though it does not concern itself with the luxury home market.

From 2006 - See the chart of "Top five U.S.cities for foreign real
estate investment."


From 2004 - The top five US cities on foreign investors? shopping
lists are: Washington, DC, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and
Chicago, according to the results of a survey released today by the
Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate (AFIRE).


2003 Attractiveness of USA Real Estate Property Types


Another interesting article which provides general information
concerning foreign investment in U.S. Real Estate may be of interest:

"Foreign Direct Investment in U.S. Real Estate Today," By Mark Lee
Levine, CIPS and Libbi Levine Segev


From "International Luxury Buyers 'Just Like You and Me.' Daily Real
Estate News,May 2006

"Foreign buyers of U.S. luxury homes are the same as domestic buyers
in that they start their property searches on the Internet and peruse
magazines, co-founder Donna Lee Laue says."

"Foreigners are flocking primarily to Florida, but Nevada, Colorado,
the Carolinas, and Virginia are also popular, Laue says....."


From Real Estate Digest - January 2006

Most Luxury Home Buyers Simply Pay By Cash - "66 percent of agents indicated
noticeable activity from foreign luxury buyers, with the United
Kingdom representing 50 percent of foreign purchasers; Canada, 23
percent; India, 15 percent; Mexico, 9 percent; and China and Australia
tied at 8 percent."


"San Francisco Real Estate Market Update for September 2006."


"California's million-dollar home market booms." 


 I hope this information provides you with some interesting insights! 



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National Association of Realtors website
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