For a first time borrower (if possible to sort the statistics to this
level) AND/OR a young borrower (say, less than 22 or ?? years old)
and also all borrowers, what is the min/max/median/average/bell
curve/whatever is available number of years a 30 year fixed mortgage
is actually held by the borrower??
I need this data to be "official", compelling, and/or obviously
believeable by a jury in an upcoming trial, as well as relatively
bulletproof from attack by the opposing attorney. Note: I'm not an
attorney, I'm a party in the lawsuit...what a drag.
Other parameters that would be helpful sorts include: West Coast;
Oregon; young borrower(22 years old + -); first time borrower; stick
built, single family detached home, (not manufactured); $140,000
appraised vaule range. |
Clarification of Question by
helpmewin-ga
on
11 Nov 2006 11:59 PST
The most critical aspects of this question are:
1. Data must be "official", meaning that it comes from some type of
authorative source/publication/person with credientals.
2. Median and/or Average number of years a 30 year fixed mortgage (or
all mortgages, if all else fails) is actually held by the borrower.
3. Current (or reasonably current ie, year 2000 or later) data
|
Request for Question Clarification by
umiat-ga
on
11 Nov 2006 14:12 PST
Hello, helpmewin-ga!
You sound desperate. I have poked around for a few hours and found
nothing. The one organization that might be able to point you to such
data, if it exists, is the Mortgage Banker's Association. They have
all sorts of reports on their site, but I found nothing concerning
defaults relative to the life of the mortgage loan.
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/
On this page of Delinquency Report Surveys, they do mention "Special
Requests." Perhaps they can generate some data for you.
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/ResearchandForecasts/ProductsandSurveys/NationalDelinquencySurvey.htm
Wish I could help futher! Is there any other way to tackle this? Any
other research you might need aside from this to bolster your case?
umiat
|
Request for Question Clarification by
pafalafa-ga
on
11 Nov 2006 14:37 PST
hmw-ga,
You've posed quite a challenge. As umiat's comment, above, noted, the
data don't seem to be out there in quite the fashion you asked for.
The closest I've come is data from an impeccable source that shows the
average life of *refinanced* mortages is about three years.
That is, mortgage-holders who do a re-fi, typically do it only three
years after taking out their original loan.
Since re-fi's account for a very large fraction of total mortgage
activity, one can certainly make the case that a typical mortgage
doesn't age much beyond three years, on average.
I can provide all the relevant data just mentioned, if you think that
would be a useful way to answer your question.
But as I said, the specific numbers you asked for for all mortgages,
broken out by age, geography, etc, just doesn't seem to be available.
Let me know your thoughts on all this,
pafalafa-ga
|
Clarification of Question by
helpmewin-ga
on
11 Nov 2006 16:11 PST
Thanks for the investigation and feedback.
"The closest I've come is data from an impeccable source that shows the
average life of *refinanced* mortages is about three years.
That is, mortgage-holders who do a re-fi, typically do it only three
years after taking out their original loan.
Since re-fi's account for a very large fraction of total mortgage
activity, one can certainly make the case that a typical mortgage
doesn't age much beyond three years, on average."
The above info is relevant. Can it be expanded upon re how long a
borrower actually holds the original loan until an event occurs to pay
off the original loan...ie, refinance or sale of the property? Are
there other sources documenting the same facts you already uncovered
that would serve to confirm the original source?
Pafalafa, how can this research proceed, so it is fair to you, given
the data just may not be available in the exact form I desire?
|
Request for Question Clarification by
pafalafa-ga
on
11 Nov 2006 18:48 PST
hmw-ga,
I appreciate your note, and your willingness to stick with the process
here. This is a tricky one, though. I can put in a lot of effort on
the research, but in the end, there may not be much more than what
I've found already.
The stats I have are from Freddie Mac, which is a government-sponsored
mortgage underwriter, and one of the powerhouses in the mortgage area.
Their word is gospel in this business.
Have a look at what they call their Re-Fi report, the most recent one is at:
http://www.freddiemac.com/news/archives/rates/2006/3qupb06.html
In the table near the bottom of the page is a column titles: "Median
Age of Refinanced Loan (years)". This is how long an original loan
had been held before it went through refinancing.
As you can see, the periods are rather short, and were down to under 2
years in 2003, when loans were being churned all over the place.
The same document also notes that re-fi's are a very large portion of
the total mortgage action:
"While the refinance share of applications is still strong, the share
of all mortgage applications that were for refinance did slip for the
third consecutive quarter to 41 percent from 42 percent in the second
quarter of 2006, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market
Survey".
Hopefully, these data will be of use to you in your case.
You asked how we should proceed, and I can offer two suggestions:
1. Take the data just posted as the answer to your question(it may
well be all that is available). You can adjust the price of your
question to whatever amount you deem appropriate.
2. Leave the question at its full price. I can continue researching
the topic, but you may well end up with an answer along the lines of
"Sorry. I looked, but there really doesn't seem to be any other
relevant info out there".
Perhaps you can think of another alternative or two to add to the list.
Let me know your thoughts on all this.
pafalafa-ga
|
Clarification of Question by
helpmewin-ga
on
11 Nov 2006 19:18 PST
I would like to work with you..I like your trusting approach re money.
When you feel that you've hit $200 of time, stop and give me a final
answer. In the meantime, let's converse frequently to focus the
approach/results/etc.
Also read several of your answers to other questions and observed a
thoughtful and effective product with good value to the originator.
I'm shutting down for the evening, but if you would reread my original
question and clarification and then ponder some additional strategies
that would be helpful
|
Request for Question Clarification by
pafalafa-ga
on
12 Nov 2006 11:56 PST
Thanks for the note. I'm going to give this whole topic some more
thought, and do some additional research, and I'll let you know what
turns up.
In the mean time, though, I mus admit I'm having a hard time
visualizing a lawsuit in which this piece of information would play an
important role. It may help my research if I understood the context a
bit more. Also, I can search other legal cases as well as the
internet, if you think that would help, but I need to have a clear
idea of what sort of cases I'm looking for.
Lastly, what sort of timetable are you on, in terms of needing this information?
Thanks.
paf
|
Clarification of Question by
helpmewin-ga
on
12 Nov 2006 16:59 PST
stop the presses...it looks like there is a settlement, which causes me great joy.
Pafalafa, how much do I owe you for your work so far? Also please
email me at kenma@cmc.net
For anybody else considering this questio, please consider this question "canceled"
|
Request for Question Clarification by
pafalafa-ga
on
12 Nov 2006 18:52 PST
Wow. Great news. I hope things worked out well for you.
As for what you owe me, that's entirely up to you. Your question was
never answered, so it's perfectly fair to cancel the question, pay
nothing besides the fifty cents listing fee, and that's that.
If you prefer to offer partial payment, then simply re-set the fee at
whatever you feel is appropriate (for about 4 hours of work), and I'll
happily post an "answer".
The instructions for repricing a question are:
http://answers.google.com/answers/help.html
Change your question price
...You can change your price at anytime as long as your question is
not currently 'locked' and being answered by a Researcher. To change
your question price, go to "My Account," select "My Unanswered
Questions" and click on the question with the price you want to
change. Then click on "Change Question Parameters" to modify the
price.
Again, all the best to you.
paf
P.S. You asked that I contact you, but I'm afraid that's not
permitted under the rules here at Google Answers....all communications
happen right in these text boxes.
|
Clarification of Question by
helpmewin-ga
on
13 Nov 2006 08:09 PST
$100 is what I would like to pay to pafalafa. I am going to try to
change the price, and then if you, Pafalafa, would lock on and answer
with the data you have already found, that would settle things up.
Thank you very much for your help.
|
,
0 Comments
)