Will i-mode be a success in Europe (Netherlands, Germany, Belgium)?

It is impossible to accurately prophesy the future about technology
acceptance, but we can look at general opinion about the technology
and see if it is likely to be accepted.

As you already know, i-mode is huge in Japan. Of the almost 50 million
daily users of data services, 60% of them use the i-mode. And 60% is
more than enough to qualify a technology as a success.

And the reason for it's success in Japan?

"The lesson that DoCoMo learnt early is the obvious one: that content
and services sell. Technology does not. It is the services - picture
messaging, easy direction finding, finance, games, and hundreds more -
which took i-mode to critical mass and beyond."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1835000/1835821.stm

Now will it be a success in Europe?

General opinion is mixed. It is viewed that while DoCoMo's business
plan works great in Japan, it might not necessarily transfer well to
Europe. The main problems are the resistance of the wireless market in
and of itself because of it's allegiance to WAP, the consumer is used
to free internet why would they pay, and the services available
through i-mode will not necessarily appeal to the European consumer.

3g.co.uk published an article, "European Mobile Operators To Repeat
i-mode Success" (March 20, 2002) states,

"DoCoMo's i-mode service mode is a run-away success in Japan based on
the large amount of open, affordable content and a simple, enjoyable
user experience. Potentially, this success can be repeated on a larger
scale throughout Europe if operators avoid basing mobile data services
on a centralised network model or re-purposed legacy routers, and
focus on the deployment of scalable infrastructure at the edge of the
network. This eliminates the need for costly, non-scaleable solutions
like the localised server farms, which DoCoMo had to deploy to cope
with the large number of early outages they experiences resulting from
breakaway demand."

"I am not convinced that i-mode technology will enjoy much success in
Europe," commented Declan Lonergan, director of wireless research and
consulting at the Yankee Group Inc., of London. "Although DoCoMo
brings to Europe a valuable business model, with a content and
services ecosystem that drove significant traffic and revenues in
Japan, it may be hindered by some of the technical problems it has
encountered at home, as well as by the strong commitment to WAP
technology and services exhibited by most major European mobile
operators."
http://www.3g.co.uk/PR/March2002/2079.htm

Icon Today asks a similar, yet more basic, question as your own:

"Do Europeans actually want to use i-mode, or clones thereof? Henry
Elkington of the Boston Consulting Group notes that cultural
differences mean that the sorts of services that are popular in Japan,
such as daily horoscopes or cartoon downloads, may not prove such hits
in Europe. Moreover, Europeans are used to getting their Internet
content free, and thus may be reluctant to pay for it on their phones.
In short, a clever business model and snazzy technology are necessary,
but not sufficient, for the mobile Internet to take off in Europe. The
remaining piece of the puzzle—new content and services that users will
pay for—remains elusive."
http://www.icontoday.com/news/default.cfm?nId=838

Perhaps the best place to look is at EuropeMedia.net's recent article
on this exact question! "I-mode In Europe: What Are It's Chances" (May
2, 2002)
Visit the article itself for the arguments, but their verdict is thus:

"Mobile internet in Europe has done little to assure operators of the
future data revenue streams they need. SMS is the only successful data
service, but alone it can go little beyond the 11-15 per cent of
revenues it accounts for now. Into this arena comes i-mode, a proven
proposition that should be able to breathe new life into the
European’s attitude to mobile data.

T-Motion, although a little late, is the only player to have realized
what the important features are to a mobile data service offering.
According to its CEO Nikesh Arora, the focus should be on "relevance,
reliability, usability and sometimes exclusivity." If their offering
manages to realize this, only then will i-mode have an equal in the
European m-internet playing field."
http://www.europemedia.net/showfeature.asp?ArticleID=8211


Additional information:

Business Week: I-mode Proving To Be A Tremendous Success
http://www.businessweek.com/adsections/itu/i_mode.htm

I-Mode In Europe: White Sheet
http://www.tarifica.com/reports/i-mode.asp

European Mobile Operators To Repeat i-mode Success
http://www.3g.co.uk/PR/March2002/2079.htm

Icon Today: I-mode Comes To Europe
http://www.icontoday.com/news/default.cfm?nId=838

BBC News: The Secret Of NTT's I-mode Success
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1835000/1835821.stm

Wired: Europe Getting A Taste of Japan
http://www.wired.com/news/wireless/0,1382,49220,00.html


Search terms used:

i-mode success europe
://www.google.com/search?q=i%2Dmode+success+europe

Thanks for the elaborate answer!

To determine its success in Japan, executives are researching why it
is so successful in Japan. Main factors are in Japan the computer and
internet boom was not as great as in USA and Europe. One of the main
reasons for the smaller PC adoption rate was high telephone charges,
which resulted in less per-capita computer use and shorter sessions.

Success will depend on how much Europeans are willing to pay for
content and how much penetration there is of computers in the market.

I-mode is very expensive (you pay for the packet data transfer as well
as the content itself).

Europeans already sends millions of SMS messages every day, so we know
they should be comfortable with sending and receiving content via
mobile phone.

i-mode is so big because of the huge amount of content available. The
content is available because it is a very commercial endeavour.
Generally the sites are subscription based, costing about US$1.00-2.50
per month per site. The content is provided by i-mode as well as third
party vendors.

One drawback of the subscription pricing model is you have to access
the data frequently to make it worth the subscription.

If Europeans will not fit this pricing model, success of i-mode style
service could depend on finding the right pricing model (for instance,
micro-payment for each access of a site's content)

Another factor in its success in Japan is computer penetration. Only
now, computers are starting to be common household appliances. When
you compare the user experience of typing email on a computer to
typing email on a web-enabled phone, the computer is much much easier.
Many people have never typed on a computer keyboard, so they don't
have a comparison to make. They type along on the i-mode phone and
don't think it's a burden.

The last major factor in i-mode's success is it's mobility. In the US,
people tend to move around in their cars, and won't have their hands
or minds free to surf the mobile web. In Japan i-mode is a great
distractor when riding public transportation or when waiting to meet
friends. Most big cities in Europe would have similar demographics
(but likely shorter commute times) and this is a factor in favor of
successful i-mode penetration.

To sum it all up, I think the chances are 'very good' that i-mode will
succeed in Europe-- but I'm not too sure about the US.

I-mode is a success in Japan because it is about benefits not
technology.

We have spent many years mapping product values on to the drivers that
commit the consumer to buying technology.

The problem with today's high-tech industry is that it inflates tech
bubbles in order to upsell the technologies without recourse to
understanding whether or not the consumer actually wanted it or not -
case in point LBS, WAP etc.

I-mode *like* services will be a success if they consider a) whether
or not the mainstream (ie non-early adopter) user actually wants this
service and b) which product it will displace in order to secure a
slice of the consumer spending pie.

More info
http://www.w2forum.com/knowledge.php