If 1 in 5 people over 75 in the United Kingdom will lose their sight,
how do I find the probability that someone (of any age) will lose
their sight?

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Request for Question Clarification by molloch-ga on 08 May 2002 00:16 PDT

Sorry - I know this question is reaching its deadline but was only
registered today... Are you asking for the actual probability that a
person living in the UK will lose their sight? Or are you asking for
the methods to work out the probability from the statement "If 1 in 5
people over 75 ... will lose their sight"? In which case we need to
know more data before being able to calculate the probability. The
average life span of a person etc.

Cheers
Molloch

There were 58,801,500 people in the United Kingdom in 1996 [1].  Of
those, 897,370 are visually impaired [1].  Approximately 1.8% of
infants born will be visually impaired by the time of their death.

877,260 people older than 15 years of age are visually impaired [1],
so almost anyone who is visually impaired became that way after 15
years of age.  Assuming constant conditions, the likelihood for a
person of any age to become visually impaired in the United Kingdom is
approximately 1.8%.

If one assumes that most blind and partially sighted people lose their
sight after birth, and takes into account that there were 93,956 blind
people and 160,197 partially sighted people in the United Kingdom, the
odds of going blind are 0.16%, and the odds of becoming partially
sighted are 0.27%.  Of course, the odds of going blind or becoming
partially sighted are 0.43%

These figures assume that most people lose their site after birth, and
that conditions that cause blindness and visual imparity remain the
same.

The legal definition for blindness is:
"
According to the National Assistance Act 1948, a person can be
registered as blind if they are 'so blind that they cannot do any work
for which eyesight is essential'.
"

The legal definition of partially sighted is:
"
A person may be registered as partially sighted if they are
'substantially and permanently handicapped by defective vision, caused
by congenital defect or illness or injury'.
"

[1] http://www.rnib.org.uk/wesupply/fctsheet/authuk.htm
[2] http://www.rnib.org.uk/sightlos/reg.htm#7

Search Terms:
blind people in united kingdom

These tables do not directly answer the question, but they may be
helpful.
[http://www.doh.gov.uk/public/blindandpartiallysighted.htm]

"Downloadable Spreadsheets

England historical summary tables in Excel Format

Table 1: Number of people on the register of the blind by age group,
1982 to 2000

Table 2: Number of people on the register of the partially sighted by
age group, 1982 to 2000 "

Here's how I found this URL:
(1) www.yahoo.com
(2) Clicked on Regional
(3) Clicked on Countries
(4) Clicked on United Kingdom
(5) Clicked on Government
(6) Clicked on Departments
(7) Clicked on Department of Health (under site listings)
(8) Clicked on Statistics and Surveys
(9) Clicked on Statistical publications
(10) Went to "Search entire site" [right hand part of web page]
(11) Entered word "sight" [without quotes]
(12) Selected 1st option "Registered blind and partially sighted
people....

Hoping this helps some,
Janice