Hi patrickbarry!!
I found several forecasts that differs a little one to each other:
From "Freddie Mac News Center":
"The Unemployment rate for June was unchanged at 5.9%. Current
employment growth is nonexistent, and, year-to-date, more jobs have
been lost than created. Our forecast for the second half of the year
and into the next is revised to reflect slower recovery in labor
markets. The 2002 unemployment rate is forecasted to be 5.8%, and our
2003 forecast is now at 5.6%."
Taken from: "A Wild Ride for the Economy" by Frank Nothaft and Amy
Crews Cutts
August 8, 2002
http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/outlooks2002/outlook_080802.html
The U.S. House of Representatives have published a document entitled
"ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS". Here you can read at pages 1 and 2 of 3:
"The administration projects unemployment rates of 5.9 percent and 5.5
percent in calendar year 2002 and 2003. The 2002 rate is 0.2
percentage point lower than both CBO and Blue Chip, and the 2003 rate
is 0.2 percentage point lower than Blue Chip and 0.4 percentage point
lower than CBO. In the medium term, CBO projects 0.3 percentage points
higher unemployment rates than the other two. The administration
projects 4.9 percent unemployment rate in the medium term, as it
revised its NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment)
from 4.6 percent to 4.9 percent. The private forecasters also project
4.9 percent unemployment rate, while CBO projects 5.2 percent."
http://www.house.gov/budget/bb03econ.pdf
At The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) you can read their
"Economic Assumptions":
"...The turnaround in the economy helped improve the labor market. The
nation's payrolls expanded in May and June, following 13 consecutive
months of declines. In the hard-hit manufacturing sector, job losses
in recent months were much smaller than during the prior year and the
workweek, a leading indicator of economic growth, lengthened. The
unemployment rate in June was 5.9 percent, about the same level as in
April and May, but somewhat higher than the 5.6 percent average of the
prior six months...
The economic assumptions for the Mid-Session Review, summarized in
Table 3, have been revised from those used in the Administration's
2003 Budget to incorporate the unanticipated strength and timing of
the recovery, and the passage of the Job Creation and Worker
Assistance Act (JCWAA). Real GDP growth this year is now expected to
be considerably higher than anticipated in the budget. Private sector
forecasters have made a similar upward revision. Over the near- and
longer-term, the Mid-Session Review projections are close to the
consensus of private sector forecasts. The rates of GDP growth and
unemployment during the second half of the projection period are the
same as in the budget; inflation and interest rate projections are
nearly identical to those in the budget...
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter of 2001
and the first quarter of this year was stronger than expected in the
budget assumptions. As a result, actual growth last year was 1.2
percent on a year-over-year basis, compared with the 1.0 percent
estimated in the budget, and growth this year is projected to be 2.6
percent, compared with 0.7 percent in the budget. Growth during the
next few years is projected to be slightly less than anticipated in
the budget because the recovery appears to be more front-loaded than
expected previously...
As in the budget assumptions, the unemployment rate is projected to
decline during the next few years to 4.9 percent in 2007 and then
remain at that low level. That rate is the Administration's estimate
of the long-run unemployment rate that is consistent with stable
inflation. It is also the same as the outyear projection of the Blue
Chip consensus..."
In the Table 3 they show their forecast for "Unemployment rate,
civilian, percent":
Fourth quarter level: 5.6% (2002); 5.8% (2003)
Annual average: 4.8% (2002); 5.8% (2003).
You can see the complete document visiting:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2003/msr03.html
Finally from "Cumberland Asset Management" tha following document:
"Economic Outlook - June 2002":
"...Employment is generally expected to improve through the end of
this year and into 2003. These estimates have also been improving
since the last survey that we reviewed. The projection for 2002 is now
5.8% from the 6% expected for the year in April. The estimate for next
year has improved to 5.4% vs.5.6% in April. The changes may appear
minor but the direction is key and significant. Unemployment is
bumping against 6% right now, productivity is up, hours worked are
higher, a strong level of demand has been met and the use of temporary
workers is increasing. This all added up to a jobless recovery. Our
belief is that the unemployment rate stays stubbornly high. The chart
below labeled Duration of Unemployment is currently at its highest
level recorded. Undoubtedly the measurement of this statistic is
somewhat suspect and the recent (post September 11) Extended Benefits
program will be a factor but the current level is high enough to
signal that something ominous is happening. If productivity is
genuinely higher and workers are not getting called back,
the unemployment rate is unlikely to improve..."
To read the complete document:
http://www.cam.ca/net/reports/forcast.pdf
I hope that you find this answer satisfactory. If you need some
clarification, feel free to post a request for it.
Search strategy:
-Keywords:
"unemployment rate" forecast 2002 2003;
-
Search results page at Google:
://www.google.com/search?q=%22unemployment+rate%22+forecast+2002+2003&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&start=0&sa=N
Best Regards
livioflores-ga |
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