Hi,
Major debates List
Does it Exist?
1. Yes
2. No
3. How Much and When?
What are the causes if it does Exists?
4. Human C02 Usage
5. The Sun Alterations
6. The Amazon Jungle during El Nino
7. Secondary Partials such as Sut
8. Volcanic Activity (Natural C02 creation)
9. Ozone Layer depletion is the cause
What needs to be done if it does exits
10. The Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
11. the Kyoto Protocol
12. Current Changes in US Policy
What, if anything, can we do about it?
13. Changes in C02 emissions
14. Rain forest protection (other Environmental protections)
15. Aerosols (protection of plankton)
16. Nothing we do will matter because we are not the cause
Let's begin.
Does it Exist?
1. Yes
2. No
3. How Much and When?
For the most part, currently there are few still standing on the
ground that a Global warming is not happening at all. Most of the
debate is in the area of 3. How Much and When. There was a strong
shift to the "No" answer when the NASA satellite data was showing a
Global cooling over the last 20 years, when the ground measurements
were all showing a Global warming. Many of the media newspapers had a
lot of fun with this until it was discovered that an error was made by
those interpreting the data from the satellites (not NASA). Once the
data was re-done with the correction the effect of Global warming was
seen there too, and much of the "it's not happening" debate side
shifted to How Much and When.
This is basically where we stand now, and trying to figure out the
answers to these questions is proving to be difficult. Over the past
century, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates, the
world warmed by 0.6 C. In this century, says the IPCC, we can expect
temperatures to increase by as much as 6 C.
Richard Benedict, of the US Conservation Foundation, says that there
is however convincing evidence that the current minuscule global
surface temperature rise of 0.053 degrees C per decade is fully
explainable through changes in the output of the Sun - this trend
would produce a warming of half a degree by 2100, 12 times less than
the IPCC prediction and due to entirely natural processes beyond
mankind's influence.
On this website at harvard.edu we have two other articles
http://www.med.harvard.edu/chge/qrsummer02/rind.htm
"Both of these articles address the question of temperature change in
the last 1000 years. The first article draws upon tree ring data,
primarily dealing with land areas outside the tropics (extratropical).
It shows relatively large temperature changes during the 900 years
prior to the 20th century. These changes include warming during the
so-called Medieval Warm Period of the late 10th - early 11th century,
and cooling during the Maunder Minimum of the late 17th century with
decreased sunspot activity. This is in contrast to the latest global
change reconstruction given in the International Panel on Climate
Change-2001 (IPPC) report that showed less drastic changes. The two
points of view can be reconciled only if the tropics had little
temperature change. If that were so, it would imply future tropical
temperature changes associated with greenhouse warming may not be as
much as predicted?
The second article reviews the sun’s role in changing climate and
draws attention to the fact that these tropical temperature change
estimates are hindered by inadequate data. They remain a great
uncertainty in understanding both the importance of solar variations
in changing climate and the response of the tropics in general. "
This page at the EPA website shows a table which tries to track Global
Warming stats and show them in a readable format
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/NewsandEventsTemperatureTracker.html
The EPA's stance on this is "Since 1976, global surface temperatures
have risen at a rate of nearly 3.6°F (2.0°C) per century, comparable
to the rate of warming that climate models project will occur during
the next hundred years due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse
gases. Satellite measurements of temperatures in the lowest 5 miles (8
kilometers) of the atmosphere show a more modest rate of warming."
Here is a recent speech presented by President Bush on the subject
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/NewsandEventsSpeechesBush-6-11-01.html
And so the debate of How Much and When seems to be the largest in this
area now.
What are the causes if it does Exists?
4. Human C02 Usage
5. The solar forcing
6. The Amazon Jungle during El Nino
7. Secondary Partials such as Soot
8. Volcanic Activity (Natural C02 creation)
9. Ozone Layer depletion is the cause
First of number 9 here doesn't seem to be getting much of a voice
these days. Though the ozone layer depletion is probably not helping
matters, it doesn't appear to be a major cause.
There are strong arguments for the Human CO2 areas on both sides. A
good website to look at for these debates follow here. This first one
seems to suggest it has nothing to do with Human actions, and even
suggests at times that the Global warming is not happening at all.
http://www.co2science.org/
The EPA has a good set of reports here on actually CO2 and other
emissions though if you find raw data rather boring I would save it
for a large cup of coffee
http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/emissions/us2002/txt/
NASA has an article here which says Yes the CO2 is a problem but so is
Methane Gas and Soot, bringing into the debate Secondary Partials.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/15jan_greenhouse.htm?list603673
Another study currently going on by NASA and is hyper linked below in
the Links section, is looking at the possibility that the large amount
of CO2 in the atmosphere is not the cause but the result of Global
warming. The main suggestion is that if it is too hot then the Rain
Forest doesn't go into its photosynthesizing state and the CO2 builds
up.
Solar forcing is being talked about a great deal and several studies
are being done and written about in this area.
http://www.gsajournals.org/gsaonline/?request=get-abstract&issn=0091-7613&volume=029&issue=12&page=1107
has some heavy reading and
http://www.nature.com/nsu/011220/011220-9.html has a lighter reading
based on that previous study.
Other studies for this base argument can be found on this page
http://link.springer-ny.com/link/service/journals/00382/tocs/t2019005.htm
The idea here is that change in the sun, rapid changes, are effecting
our environment, and it is not necessarily the C02 or anything else
that we are doing, it just seems that way. The idea has merit and is
getting a large following.
The other "natural" cause argument is the Volcanic activity theories.
Which state that the C02 released from volcanic activity, along with
methane and other partials are the main cause and what we are putting
into the atmosphere isn't close to the amount that could really cause
Global warming on any scale.
One article which has links to the studies done address both of these
and can be found here :
PhysicsWeb
http://physicsweb.org/article/news/3/6/9/1
" Lockwood and colleagues found that the total magnetic flux leaving
the Sun has risen by a factor of 1.4 since 1964, and has probably
increased by a factor of 2.3 since 1901. Their results could provide
support for the theory that changes in the solar wind - a stream of
charged particles emitted by the Sun - could contribute to climate
change.
"
Futher down in the same article we then find this paragraph
"However, the paper by Tett and colleagues suggests that natural
effects alone cannot account for the pattern of temperature change
observed over the past 50 years. "
Another page which addresses Solar Forcing and has several resources
on it as well can be found here:
The Dynamical Response of the Arctic Vortex to Aerosol-Related
http://www.albany.edu/~yfq/details/SolarIndirect.htm
To move on to Volcanic Events causing the Green house effect lets
first start with this article which suggests that they are not the
cause but that they hid the warnings of Global Warming over the last
few decades. From the article :
"The paper attempts to quantify volcanic influences on surface and
tropospheric temperatures. Volcano "signals" are themselves masked by
the temperature changes caused by El Niño events. The eruption of El
Chichón in Mexico in 1982 coincided with a large El Niño event during
the winter of 1982-83, while the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the
Philippines in 1991 occurred at the same time as El Niño of 1991-92.
To study volcanic effects on temperature, El Niño influences must
first be removed. "
"The atmospheric scientists used a statistical procedure to separate
El Niño and volcanic effects in observed temperature records. They
found that aerosol particles from El Chichón and Pinatubo cooled the
lower troposphere and probably masked the actual warming of the
troposphere. Volcanoes therefore supply at least part of the
explanation for the different temperature trends at the Earth’s
surface and in the troposphere. "
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/11/011128035329.htm
Alan Robock has several papers on the Volcanic Activity effecting the
environment area and many of the references to his work can be found
on this page
http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/robock/robock_volpapers.html
Going through many of these studies and debates on the volcanic area I
found that most of these were trying to find an answer to the problem
of the satellite data showing a global cooling while the ground
temperatures showing the opposite. Since the error in that data was
discovered much of this as lost its inertia. A article which describes
this can be found here:
http://www.lanl.gov/worldview/news/releases/archive/99-175.shtml
What needs to be done if it does exits
10. The Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
11. the Kyoto Protocol
12. Current Changes in US Policy
Earth Summit Documents
http://www.ecouncil.ac.cr/about/ftp/riodoc.htm
The U.N. Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), commonly
known as the Earth Summit, was held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992.
Government representatives from 178 countries were present. Efforts
during UNCED to negotiate an Earth Charter - an environmental bill of
rights delineating the principles for economic and environmental
behavior of peoples and nations - ultimately produced the Rio
Declaration on Environment and Development. Other major documents
resulting from UNCED were Agenda 21, a statement on Forest Principles,
and two conventions: one on Climate and another on Biodiversity.
Kyoto Protocol
http://www.newscientist.com/hottopics/climate/climatepoliticsfaq.jsp
The first legally binding treaty aimed at cutting emissions of the
main greenhouse gases believed to contribute to global warming. More
than 150 nations signed it back in December 1997 at a meeting in
Kyoto. But they left much of the detail about how it would be
implemented to future talks. These dragged on, reaching a crisis in
The Hague in November 2000, when the US and the European Union failed
to agree and talks broke down. George W. Bush was installed as
President soon afterwards, and announced that he was pulling the US
out of the deal altogether. Since the US is the source of a quarter of
emissions of greenhouse gases that was a big blow, but the other
nations decided to carry on and they finally reached agreement in
Marrakech in November 2001.
Kyoto Ratification despite Bush refusing to ratify
http://www.abc.net.au/am/s666642.htm
"U.S. President George W. Bush is distancing himself from a new report
by his administration's Environmental Protection Agency that says
global warming will have far-reaching effects on the environment. "
"Bush shrugged off the agency's report this week: "I read the report
put out by the bureaucracy. I do not support the Kyoto treaty."
http://greennature.com/article1294.html
What, if anything, can we do about it?
13. Changes in C02 emissions
14. Rain forest protection (other Environmental protections)
15. Aerosols (protection of plankton)
16. Nothing we do will matter because we are not the cause
Most of this has already been covered, in the Kyoto treaty and the
Earth Summit Documents, which outline most of the current debates on
these issues. One thing that was new, or not discussed in those areas
was :
Algal aerosol a weapon against global warming
http://www.sciencenet.org.uk/slup/CuttingEdge/Jul02/algalaerosol.html
Which I found very interesting. It gives two good ideas which are a
possible answer, the protection of the algal and the creation of
aerosols. Though this is more of an idea than a debate issue, I did
find it very interesting and possibly could lead to other ideas in the
future regarding how to solve this problem and protect our future.
Global Cooling ?
There are two things going on with Global Cooling talks right now. The
first is the satellite deal that seemed to record over the last 20
years (NASA satellites) a global cooling of the planet and the
troposphere rather than the ground recording of a global warming. It
was found however that those doing the calculations from the satellite
data had made and error, not taking into account the changing altitude
of the satellites and once this was corrected the measurements almost
matched the ground records for the same time period. (thought those
that made the error are saying it was not that drastic and shows a
flat line once corrected)
In the 1970's a large debate was going on warning about Global
cooling. This was for the most part simply a mistake in the way the
data was being looked at, and the predictions being made. It is known
now that the final cycle of a warming planet is a sudden and drastic
cooling state, which causes ice age actions on the planet and a large
global warming is now thought to be the major cause of a ice age
period which turned the earth into a large snowball, covering every
inch of the planet in a thick layer of ice. But that's getting a
little off topic. What they saw in the 1970's was a change in the way
the earth's environment was acting in the areas of C02 and
temperature. Predictions were made and the media did the rest of the
most part.
Links of Interest:
Global Warming Causes Global Cooling
http://www.isgs.uiuc.edu/dinos/jdp/news/freeze.html
Global Warming is a Natural geological process
http://www.acs.ohio-state.edu/researchnews/archive/nowarm.htm
Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of Alleged Scientific Consensus
http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/reg15n2g.html
Chemical & Engineering News --
Climate Observations Substantiate Global Warming Models
http://pubs.acs.org/hotartcl/cenear/951127/pg1.html
PBS Online : Questioning the Science of Global Warming
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/environment/july-dec97/air_12-5.html
Volcanic Effects on Global Warming
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/honors/student/volcano/global_warming.html
EO News : NASA Satellite Instrument Warms up Global Cooling Theroy
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NasaNews/2002/200201167312.html
Global Warming .org
http://www.globalwarming.org/index.htm
Boston Globe : Scientists Don't Agree on Global Warming
http://www.oism.org/pproject/
Algal aerosol a weapon against global warming
http://www.sciencenet.org.uk/slup/CuttingEdge/Jul02/algalaerosol.html
NOAA Paleoclimatology Global Warming
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/paleostory.html
New Climate Study shows California's vulnerability to global warming
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2002-06/uoc--ncs060302.php
NASA Planes to Participate in Amazon Global Warming Study
"Some environmentalists even argue that the jungle may be the source
of
carbon dioxide when the El Nino weather system is active because the
lack
of humidity prevents plants photosynthesizing. "
http://forests.org/archive/brazil/nasaplhe.htm
EPA : Global Warming Climate
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/Climate.html
NSF PR 98-22 Scintists Find Futher Global Warming Evidence in
Temperatures Reconstruction Study
http://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/news/press/pr9822.htm
Global Warming -- Researcher Issues
http://solar-center.stanford.edu/sun-on-earth/glob-warm.html
Scientists discover a major cause of Global warming, ordinary soot
http://www.stanford.edu/dept/news/pr/01/soot214.html
NASA - New Research on Long-Term Ocean Cycles Reveals Rapid Global
Warming in Near Future
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/MediaAlerts/2000/200003202104.html
colorado.edu WP Aritcle: "Study Contradicts Global Warming Skeptics"
http://csf.colorado.edu/archive/1998/energy/msg01793.html
Why Global Warming is a Controversial Issue.
http://www.bo.cnr.it/campuscolloquia/philander_abs.htm
Query(s) used
"Global Warming" +"Study" .+edu
"Global Warming" +"Study"
"Global Warming" +"Global Cooling"
Thanks,
webadept-ga |
