Thank you for the interesting question.
CELLPHONE INSTALLED BASE
--------------------------
There is very good information on the U.S. wireless market, including
the EMC World Cellular Database study (June, 2001), which gives the
following census (and forecast*) for U.S. cellphones:
2001: 125.9 million
2002*: 148.7 million
2003*: 172.4 million
2004*: 195 million
2005*: 215.7 million
The EMC study is summarized in this Cellular Online report. Note that
U.S. usage is 90% of the combined U.S. and Canada
http://www.cellular.co.za/analysts/07182001-emc_forecasts_subscribers_to_top.htm
WIRELESS PDA SUBSCRIPTIONS
--------------------------
As I'm sure you're aware, PDAs and cellphones are on a crash course
for convergence, making it difficult sometimes to separate the
categories. However, we have some data -- and Research in Motion
(RIM), which makes the Blackberry wireless radio, has been releasing
installed base numbers in financial reports for about a year.
According to Wireless Internet Magazine in the article "BlackBerry OS"
the Next Monster?" (May-June, 2001), the wireless subscriptions for
PDAs in North America stood at:
Palmnet (Palm VII): 175,000
Palm via others: 75,000
Blackberry: 164,000
Please note that an adjustment to purely U.S. figures would be roughly
90% U.S. and 10% Canada:
Palmnet: 157,500
Palm via others: 67,500
Blackberry: 147,600
The Wireless Internet magazine article can be found here:
http://www.wirelessinternetmag.com/news/0106/0106_devbiz_blackberry.htm
As mentioned before, RIM has been releasing information in its
financial reports on the growth of the Blackberry subscription base,
which has been significant. According to RIM quarterly financial
reports, these are the quarter-by-quarter growth rates:
Added in FY2002:
Q2 (ended 9/1/02): 48,000 to 403,000 total
Q1 (ended 6/1/02): 34,000 to 355,000 total
Q4 (ended 3/2/02): 32,000 to 321,000 total
Q3 (ended 12/31/01): 48,000
Q2: 246K at 9/1/01
The quarterly reports can all be found linked from the RIM "Financial
Releases" page:
http://www.rim.com/investors/releases/index.shtml
Until its 2002 fiscal year, all of the subscription base was in the
U.S. and Canada, split roughly along the 90%/10% that is an estimate
of market size between the two countries. The RIM annual reports for
2000 and 2001, actually show approximately 92.5% of subscriptions in
the U.S. and the balance in Canada, putting the 9/1/01 numbers at
roughly:
U.S.: 228,000
Canada: 18,000
TOTAL: 246,000
But in FY 2002, according to the RIM annual report, due to service
arrangements with European companies subscriptions outside North
America rose to 11% of the installed base. So, of the 157,000 new
Blackberry users, an estimate would be that 129,000 of those are in
the U.S., bringing installed bases to:
U.S.: 357,000
Canada: 30,000
Outside NA: 17,000
The data on Blackberry subscriptions comes from the "Management
Discussion and Analysis" section of the 2002 annual report. RIM's
annual reports are also linked from this "Investors" page:
http://www.rim.com/investors/reports/index.shtml
I was not successful in finding any Palm.net census numbers in
Palm.com financials, including quarterly reports, annual report and
form 10-K. Palm, Inc. does quote IDC numbers, giving it 74 percent of
the PDA market in its Q1 earnings release (Sept. 23, 2002):
http://ir.palm.com/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=palm&script=411&layout=-6&item_id=336410
With the size of market share and shipments, Palm-related wireless
usage is undoubtedly growing -- data on current size or growth rates
seems not to be available.
A broader web search was also done using this Google search strategy:
wireless + PDA + subscribers + installed base
Please let me know if there are any clarifications necessary!
Best regards,
Omnivorous-GA |
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