I would like a reference to education research which found that the
best predictor of success in a year of high school mathematics was
success in the previous year of high school mathematics, please.

Hello zig,

I searched Social Science Citation Index using “education AND factor
analysis AND math”, and found the following article that I think may
be just what you were looking for.

“Longitudinal structural equation models of academic self-concept and
achievement: Gender differences in the development of math and English
constructs,” by HW M arsh and AS Yeung.  In  MERICAN EDUCATIONAL
RESEARCH JOURNAL, (35 (4): 705-738 WIN 1998).

This article is primarily about gender differences, however, the
abstract states, “Path coefficients relating prior math and English
constructs to subsequent outcomes, however, were similar for boys and
girls.”

This next article may also be of interest to you.  It primarily deals
with the anxiety and self-concept, but the abstract states that
“Importance and effort were positively related to achievement which in
turn had a positive path coefficient to self-concept and a negative
path to anxiety”
“A structural model for predicting mathematics achievement: Its
relation with anxiety and self-concept in mathematics,” by MM
Abu-Hilal.  In PSYCHOLOGICAL REPORTS, (86 (3): 835-847 Part 1 JUN
2000).

I hope this is what you needed.
pba

See the Value-added reasearch in Tennessee

I would really like a reference to some researcher(s) who has done a
factor analysis or any research that shows that success at one year of
school mathematics is the best predictor of success in the next year
of school mathematics. It can be a few years old.I am short of time
and would like the exact reference. I tried to locate the value-added
reesearch in Tennessee, but to no avail.

Dear zig,

I found a reference for the value added research in Tennessee.  Is
this what you needed?

Peevely, G. L. and J. R. Ray.  2001.  “Does equalization litigation
effect a narrowing of the gap of value added achievement outcomes
among school districts?” in Journal of Education Finance, (vol. 26, no
4 (Spring 2001) p. 463-476).

I also found this paper referenced on line
Journal of Education Finance 
http://www.uark.edu/misc/elfc/jef/articleindex.html

Tennessee State University: CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR RESEARCH & POLICY
ON BASIC SKILLS
http://chicaserver.tsuniv.edu/Bench_pubs.htm

I searched in the library for 'math AND education' and got the names
peevely and ray, which I then searched on line for.
http://search.dogpile.com/texis/search?q=Peevely%20AND%20Ray&geo=no&fs=web&top=1