Is there any recent statistical comparison estimates of the current
number and next year projected number of corporate PC's with web
browser enabled support for Java 1.16, ActiveX enabled, Sun Java 2.0
installed/enabled, and "client" side .NET infrastructure?  (NOTE: a
application server side question).

Put another way - are (or are there plans for) corporate IT to install
Java 2.0 and/or .NET on every PC desktop.  Is one being favored over
the other?

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Clarification of Question by myriadguy-ga on 05 Nov 2002 12:26 PST

Typo in question - new at this - sorry...

Suppose to say:  NOTE: not an application server side question.  

I am interested in the desktop client side of things for Java and .NET
(not the server side).

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Clarification of Question by myriadguy-ga on 09 Nov 2002 07:42 PST

Paul,

Thanks greatly.  Your comment was insightful.  Thought it might make
sense to clarify why the question was being asked.

We are a software developer and we make a "content player" for
specific types of corporate data.  The player is intended for intranet
and extranet deployment. We provide a medium range of interactivity
with this data so it just isn't feasible to make the entire solution
server side (won't scale).

We are trying to figure out what makes the most sense for the next one
to two years.  Make it a Java 2.0 Applet, or go with it as installed
EXE (with ActiveX interface for web page embedding), or go with dot
Net. If we could have some confidence that Java 2.0 or .NET will be
installed already on the corporate desktop then an easier decision to
make.

Java ".NET" popularity
______________________________________

Here are a couple of polls I've found that compare the popularity of
Java to .NET

Unfortunately neither of them break down the version of Java by
version number, but hopefully these will give you a feel for what
people are planning within the next few years.

1. Developers giving .NET & Java Architectures "Equal Time"
http://www.evansdata.com/pr10072002.html
Excerpt: "According to the in-depth interviews, 40% of developers are
developing apps for Microsoft .NET now but 63% will target .NET a year
from now and while 51% are developing for the Java architecture today
61% will be writing for Java next year. The survey, completed in
September, found the prevalence of applications that incorporate Web
services are expected to grow significantly in the next year. Web
services adoption, which today stands at 57% of developers, will jump
to 87% next year."
Note that the full 400+ page "North American Developer Survey, Volume
2, 2002" article must be purchased from Evans Data Corporation. See
http://www.evansdata.com/sales_info.html

2. Java has a big lead in Web services
http://news.zdnet.co.uk/story/0,,t269-s2101655,00.html
Excerpt: "More than two-thirds of the respondents (69.5 percent), at
the time of writing [21st December 2001], plan to deliver some
applications by Web services by the end of 2002, with a large majority
of those (nearly half the total sample, at the time of writing)
planning to use Java. At the time of writing, only 21.5 percent plan
to use Microsoft .Net, less than the figure (23.5 percent) planning to
use neither."


Also of interest:

Java's Continuing Evolution
http://www.fawcette.com/javapro/2002_11/magazine/features/dsavarese/default_pf.asp

Java and .NET Battle for the Web's Future
http://www.newsfactor.com/perl/story/17254.html

.NET Framework For Java Programmers
http://www.csharphelp.com/archives/archive10.html
".NET is definitely an improvement over Java framework, but it is NOT
going to displace Java any time soon. Though in coming years Java and
.NET will converge."


-- Ron

Ron,

Thanks - It is really clear that there are two camps for developing
web services.

What isn't clear is what is the future for web based "client"
applications that are intended to be "thin" and browser served for the
session.   .NET appears to be a 20 Meg download for the infrastructure
on the desktop.   Java 2.0 is about a 5-6Meg download.  CNN.com just
posted a story recently about being careful about ActiveX being
enabled in the browser and my understanding is that Microsoft is
planning to drop support for Java 1.0 in the future.

So is the right solution an EXE helper application.  Flash, Real
Player, etc - are basically EXE's, some with ActiveX hooks?

Many IT groups "lock down" the desktop for non-approved installs -
Java applets (since they weren't installed) worked well in this case
(if small enough).

So the question is what "infrastructure" will most likely be on the
desktop to support the concept of "thin" clients that extend web
browser functionality?  Is the concept effectively dead?

Gary

Gary,

A few guesses:

- .NET runtimes won't show up en masse on corporate desktops until
2005+, with Windows "Longhorn." (0.7 probability)

- Client-side ActiveX and (less so) Java will both be available on
70-90% of corporate desktops through 2004.  But they will be used
mainly for point solutions, not as preferred platforms for a wide
range of apps.  (0.8 probability)

- "Served for the session" is dying fast, especially for mobile users.
 Useful ActiveX controls persist.  Java's mindless repetitive
downloads have hurt it badly on the client.

- Among the successful point apps:  stock tickers, Citrix ICA clients,
webmail enhancers like Lotus iNotes, terminal emulators....

- Whether EXE helper applications are "the right solution" depends on
the problem.  Much of the answer to your question depends on why
you're asking it!

Paul

Gary, 

Not an easy call...but probably not bet-the-company either.  If the
content player is compelling, responsive and reliable, and meets an
unmet need, users will install whatever deployment environment it
wants.  If it's not, the deployment platform won't matter.

Critical success factors:

- Decide if you are supporting dial-up.  If so, optimize for download
speed and make sure the app persists on the client.  Download deltas
for updates if possible.  If it's more than a minute at 28.8, install
from CD.

- Make version control work reliably and smoothly _from the server_. 
Ideally, IT updates the server; the user at next access is asked to
update now or not, and told the download size/time required.  The old
client rev keeps working if they can't update immediately.  If you're
fanatical, include rollback just in case.  (But if it's a choice
between rollback and more QC, do the QC. :)

- Paul

Microsoft will install .net on every client, don't worry :)