I am trying to find out about the market size and trends for
non-mainstream hair care products (shampoo and conditioner)in the USA.
These are categorised variously as natural, herbal, botanical,
alternative, aromatherapy, and can be exemplified by products like Te
Tao (Chinese herbs), Tibet (Tibetan), and Citre Shine. I am interested
in ones sold through drugstores and grocers, rather than salons, and
am not that interested in the Unilever and P&G me-too brands like
Herbal Essences.
In England this kind of data is available in data sources like Mintel
and IRI, but data on the USA is thin on the ground unfortunately
A speedy and substantive answer will be appreciated and tipped. Thanks

---

Request for Question Clarification by ragingacademic-ga on 16 Jan 2004 07:54 PST

englishresearcher - thanks for submitting your request to our forum. 
This is just a note to let you know that I've been working on your
question, have completed the necessary research, and will compile and
post the reply this morning.

thanks
ragingacademic

---

Clarification of Question by englishresearcher-ga on 16 Jan 2004 08:43 PST

Thanks. An e-mail message tells me that you need clarification, but I
am assuming that this was an automatically produced thing and just
alerts me to your note. Your morning is in fact my evening since GMT
is about 8 hours ahead of PST... But anytime before the weekend would
be ideal.
Regards,
Mike

Dear Mike,

Thanks for your question.  First, let me request that if any of the
following is unclear or if you require any further research ? please
don?t hesitate to ask me for a clarification.

You requested information about the market size and trends for
non-mainstream hair care products in the USA, of the type sold through
drugstores and grocers rather than through hair salons.

This has definitely been a challenge, but I?ve come up with quite
extensive data on this somewhat elusive sector, and I hope you will be
pleased!!

I?ll start ?at the top? with some very ?macro? numbers relating to the
hair market as a whole and then work my way down?

The global market for hair care was estimated at $45.1 billion in
2002.  Of this, shampoos and conditioners comprised 38.8%.  This does
not include products sold through salons, which comprised a further
10.8% of the total.

Growth of the shampoo & conditioner (forthwith called S&C) market from
1997 through 2002 was as follows:

1997 - $14.137 billion
1998 - $14.759 billion
1999 - $15.461 billion
2000 - $16.256 billion
2001 - $16.795 billion
2002 - $17.509 billion

Source: Soap, Perfumery & Cosmetics, 76 (11) p. 22 Nov 2003

Of this total, the USA comprised an increasing percentage over the
years as follows:

1997 - 37.70%
1998 - 38.42%
1999 - 38.92%
2000 - 39.17%
2001 - 39.42%
2002 - 39.68%

(same source)

From here we can calculate the US share of the global shampoo and
conditioner market for each of the six years above:

1997 - 	$5.33 
1998 - 	$5.67 
1999 - 	$6.02 
2000 - 	$6.37 
2001 - 	$6.62 
2002 - 	$6.95 

(all in billions)

An article in the September 2003 issue of MMR provides a good estimate
for the size of the non-salon hair care market EXCLUDING Wal*Mart ?

For the 52 weeks ending June 15, 2003, sales of hair care products at
US food, drug and discount stores excluding Wal*Mart totaled $4.26
billion

*** down 1.5% from the previous 52 week period.

The volume was 1.12 billion units - down 3.3%.

This provides some useful information ? 

+ Average price of hair care unit sold - $3.80 (4.26/1.12)
+ #units declining faster than price, so price managing to hold up
albeit greater decline in the % of units sold.

A couple of other interesting tidbits that point to possible trends in
the hair care market as a whole:

+ While sales overall declined 1.5% in dollar terms, sales declined
far more in supermarkets than in drugstores - -1.7% vs. only ?0.5%
+ Volume decline at supermarkets was ?3.6% vs. a decline of ?1.4% at drugstores

Source: MMR, 20(14) p. 23, p. 52 September 8 2003

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

As an interesting aside ? sales of ETHNIC hair care products in 1999
were $1.194 billion, estimated to rise to $1.318 billion by 2004.

Source: Advertising Age, 71(13) p. 42 March 27, 2000

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Before we finally dive into the alternative hair care market (which I
know you?re anxiously awaiting!!) ? one more set of interesting data ?
break down of US hair care sales by product subcategory:

(sales and volumes are for the 52 weeks ending June 15, 2003)

Hair conditioner
-------------------
Sales - $793.1 m
Change: -1.3%
Volume ? 250.3m units
Change: -2.4%
% of Hair Care Category: 18.6%
Average price: $3.17

Shampoo
-------------------
Sales - $1.29 billion
Change: -0.7%
Volume ? 412.1m units
Change: -2.2%
% of Hair Care Category: 30.3%
Average price: $3.13

Source: MMR as above

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ok, now we begin to tackle the alternative market more specifically:

The US natural & organic personal care product market was estimated at
$4.37 billion in 2001.  Of this, hair care comprised 19% and
aromatherapy (as a standalone subcategory) 5%.  The largest
subcategory was skin care at 42%.  These numbers do not include salons
? as before, supermarkets, discount stores, grocery stores etc.

Source: Progressive Grocer, 81 (12) p. 62-63, September 1, 2002

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Using some of the numbers we had calculated above we can now make some
estimates concerning the shampoo and conditioner market.

US natural & organic hair care market in 2001: 

$830.3 million (19% x $4.37 b)

Of this, we can estimate 30.3% is shampoo:

$251.6 million (30.3% x $830.3 m)

And conditioner based on 18.6% market share:

$154.4 million (18.6% x 830.3 m)

Remember ? these numbers do not include sales in salons.

Here?s another data point ? according to an article in Chemical Week,
total year 2000 cosmeceutical sales were $3 billion; 15% or $450m in
hair care.

Source: Chemical Week, 163 (44) p. 46-47 December 5 2001

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Within the hair care category, Cosmetics International reports that
aromatherapy products grew 18% during 2001 (US numbers).

Source: Cosmetics International, 26 (582), p. 3, March 10 2002

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Over the past five years, growth in the natural body care segment has
been up 567.5%.

Projected growth over the next five years ? for organic personal care
products ? is 102%; for herbals, 43%

Source: Soap & Cosmetics, 78 (3), p. 30-33, May 2002

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

*** 40% of US gross sales in the natural personal care category
achieved in NATURAL supermarkets such as Whole Foods etc.  12% in
mainstream supermarkets. (David Gelula, brand manager, Wild Earth,
Lake Bluff, Illinois)

Source: Supermarket News, 50 (24), p. 61+ June 17 2002

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, what has been driving growth in this sector? (for sources see at bottom)
------------------------------------------------

+ Consumers? desire to combat wrinkles and pursue a sense of health and well-being

+ Media posing more and more questions about product and ingredient safety

+ Influence of growth in organic food market

+ Public concern over use of various chemicals in personal care
products; greater accessibility to relevant information on part of the
public through Internet?

+ Outgrowth of the trend that began earlier in Europe and Canada

+ ?Back to the Garden? trend

+ Consumer preference for performance

+ Baby boomers aging

+ Development of new and more efficacious plant-derived ingredients boosting demand

+ Greater awareness of environment

+ Greater concern with waste

+ Women baby boomers ?on top of their game? ? ?driven not to age?
(March 3, 2003 Supermarket News)


How about trends?
------------------

+ Incorporation of rare exotic ingredients (some concerns raised over
harvesting of endangered plant species)

+ Etnobotany ? catering to the relationship between plants and people

+ Concerns over source of ingredients as market grows, since organic
ingredients are not cheap nor plentiful

+ Products showing up at diverse outlets such as New York City college bookstores

+ Generation X and Yers already accepting concept of quality natural
body and skin care products

+ Development of new and more efficacious plant-derived ingredients continues

+ Natural skin care and HAIR CARE products estimated to have a better
chance at success then natural cosmetics; natural cosmetics a tough
sell to consumers

+ According to the Natural Marketing Institute ? NMI ? 28% of
population agree that natural personal care products should be
fortified with functional ingredients

+ Large suppliers and marketers entering the natural care market

+ ?As more research is conducted on the harmful effects of certain
chemicals, we will see more demand.  This will encourage companies to
seek safer, natural alternatives? ? Nan Brown and Lil Bogdan,
Registered Nurses and skin consultants, founders of L?Athene Skin Care
Treatments, as quoted in September 2002 Soap & Cosmetics

+ Starting to dominate in terms of customer demand at drug and food
stores (according to Bea James, Whole Health Manager for 20 Lunds Food
Holdings stores in the Edina Minnesota region ? quoted in March 3,
2003 Supermarket News)

+ great interest on part of private equity to invest in personal care product space

+ People who use prepared to pay more than for mainstream brands

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Major Companies & Brands
------------------------

+ Tom?s of Maine
+ Aveeno
+ Zum Bar
+ Probiotics
+ Kiss My Face
+ Nature?s Gate
+ Avalon
+ Jason?s Naturals
+ Burt?s Bees
+ Ecco Bella
+ Gabriel Cosmetics
+ Zia Cosmetics
+ P&G Herbal Essences
+ Estee Lauder?s Aveda
+ Almay Foundation ? Kinetin

(this is obviously not exhaustive?)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alternative Personal Care Products ? Ingredients Market & Trends
-----------------------------------------------------------------

I came across quite a lot of information regarding ingredients and
thought would be of interest to you.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

According to an article in Soaps and Cosmetics, growth in the natural
care product sector will be led by proteins, plant acids, enzymes, and
herbal extracts.  Other ingredients showing strong interest include
soy proteins, polyhydroxy acids, and herbal extracts such as ginseng,
tea tree oil, capsilow, and burnet root.

Stats on use of natural products in cosmetics and toiletries:

        
                             1992    1996    2001    2006e
        
Natural Products              180     221     295     386     
Demand in million lbs

$/lb                         1.77    2.07    2.41    2.73    
        
Total Natural	              319     458     710   1,055   
Products Demand

Botanical Extracts            218     326     503     730   

Proteins                      45      62     105     175    
 
Sorbitol                      34      42      57      75     

Other                         22      28      45      75     
        
        
Source: Soap & Cosmetics, 78 (6) p. 64, September 2002

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

More popular ingredients: lavender, chamomile, aloe, jojoba, shea
butter, kukui oil, tea tree oil, babassu oil, therapeutic minerals,
honey

Demand for plant-derived chemicals in the personal care market is
expected to increase 4.6% annually and to reach $448 m in 2005
(wholesale)

Source: Soap & Cosmetics, 78 (3) p. 30-33, May 2002

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ingredients: exotic flavored honey, rare teas, seeds, roots and weeds.

Chamomile, lavender, Otuke shea butter.

Calophyllum inophyllum ? a kind of cold-pressed vegetable oil extract.

Olive oil, sweet birch oil, raw beeswax.  Goat?s milk.

Source: Household & Personal Products Industry, 39 (1), p. 62-72, January 2002

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Breakdown of cosmeceutical chemicals by type:

Total 2000 chemical sales to the cosmetics industry: $660 million

Antioxidants ? 39%
Specialty chemicals ? 21%
Acids ? 11%
Natural extracts ? 11%
Proteins ? 11%
Others ? 7%

Source: Chemical Week, 163 (44) p. 46-47, December 5 2001

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


I hope this response adequately addresses your request.  Please let me
know if you are in need of additional information concerning this
query.

Thanks,
ragingacademic-ga


References:

Cosmetics drive healthy growth rates.  Chemical Week, 163 (44) p.
46-47, December 5 2001

Personal care products: how natural can they get? Household & Personal
Products Industry, 39 (1), p. 62-72, January 2002

Beauty?it?s only natural. Soap & Cosmetics, 78 (3) p. 30-33, May 2002

Naturally inspired: Nature?s beauty remedies. Soap & Cosmetics, 78 (6)
p. 64, September 2002

Homegrown Beauty.  Supermarket News, 50 (24), p. 61+ June 17 2002

Natural HBC branches out: The popularity of natural health and beauty
care products in on the rise as the category eases into the
mainstream.  Supermarket News, 33, March 3 2003.

Natural cosmeceuticals: driving personal care growth today & tomorrow:
and overview of the trends and opportunities in this exploding market.
 Nutraceuticals World, 6(1), p. 58+, January 2003

---

Request for Answer Clarification by englishresearcher-ga on 17 Jan 2004 06:36 PST

Dear Raging Academic,

Thank you very much for this. Putting it together has involved
considerable effort and creativity, I imagine.

To be complete may I suggest the following? The brands you list at the
bottom of the message are mostly non-hair brands - including tooth
paste, body cream etc. On the other hand, web information apparently
provides little information on individual hair care products that fall
within this premium mass market segment, including aromatherapy,
oriental products (e.g. chinese herbs etc). Might I sugges that for a
further $30 (paid as tip) you visit a local drugstore and a local
grocer for 5 minutes each to see which such shampoo/conditioner brands
are actually on offer in this segment, and at which price?

Regards,

Mik

---

Clarification of Answer by ragingacademic-ga on 17 Jan 2004 10:33 PST

Mike - thanks so much.  I will be glad to provide you with a
comprehensive list of such brands, please give me a couple of days.

I'd be thrilled to work on future projects for you.

thanks,
ragingacademic

---

Clarification of Answer by ragingacademic-ga on 19 Jan 2004 11:41 PST

Mike - 

Here are the relevant brands I have managed to identify thus far:

Australian Organics Hydra Stabilising Shampoo (12oz, $4.99)
Australian Organics Intensive Care (12oz, $4.99)
Avalon Organics (Biotin B-Complex, 14oz, $7.99)
Avalon Organics (Treatment, Tea tree mint, 14 oz, $7.99)
Avalon Organics (Moisturizing, Awapuhi Mango, 14 oz, $7.99)
Avalon Organic Botanicals (Therapeutic, nourishing lavender, 11 oz, $6.59)
Avalon Organic Botanicals (Therapeutic, revitalizing, mint thyme, 11 oz, $6.59)
Avalon Organic Botanicals (Therapeutic, Rosemary, 11 oz $6.59)
Burt's Bees - Doctor Burt's Herbal Treatment Shampoo (Cedar leaf &
Juniper oil, 7.5 oz, $9.49)
Dessert Essence Daily Replenshing (Tea Tree, 12oz, $6.89)
Jason Natural Cosmetics (Tea Tree Oil, 17.5 oz, $7.89)
Jason Natural Cosmetics (Thin-to-Thick Hair & Scalp Therapy, 8 oz, $7.89)
Kiss My Face Aromatherapeutic (11 oz, $7.99)
Modern Organic Products (Pear shampoo, children, 10.15 oz, $11.49)
Modern Organic Products C-System Clean Shampoo (10.15oz, $14)
Modern Organic Products (Mixed greens, 10.15oz, $11.49)
Nature's Gate Organics (Soy, fragrance free, 12 oz, $5.99)
Nature's Gate Organics (Lemongrass & Clary Sage, 12 oz, $4.99)
Nature's Gate Organics  (Lavender and Aloe, 12 oz, $4.99)
Nexxus Botanoil (Botanical treatment, 13.5 oz, $9.99)
Nexxus Pep'R'Mint Herbal Energizing Shampoo (10.1oz, $3.59)
Paul Mitchell Botanical Prep Shampoo (6.8 oz, $10.99)
Shikai Natural Everyday Shampoo (12 oz, $5.99)
Tom's of Maine Natural Shampoo (Aloe & Almond, 12 oz $3.99)

I don't know if you are familiar with "Froogle" - one of Google's
products in "beta" - but it's an excellent shopping engine.  The
following searches will lead you to many more brands:

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=aromatherapy+shampoo

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=herbal+shampoo

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=botanical+shampoo

http://froogle.google.com/froogle?q=organic+shampoo

Please let me know if I can be of further assistance!!

thanks
ragingacademic

---

Request for Answer Clarification by englishresearcher-ga on 20 Jan 2004 08:23 PST

Thanks greatly for this supplemental information. By way of final
clarification, are these brands you saw in a physical store (which is,
after all, where most sales still occur) or on the web? I know that
the purpose of Google answers is to tap primarily web information, but
in the trade, actual shelf space is the acid test of what is
happening... Given that this is only a small segment of the overall
hair care market, it may be that many brands exist more in theory (or
only in small niches) than within the world as experienced by shoppers
entering stores.  How would you feel about a quick eyeball at
somewhere like Long's (or whichever grocery/drug store is in your
area). How might we arrange this and within which time frame?
Thanks again

---

Clarification of Answer by ragingacademic-ga on 20 Jan 2004 18:11 PST

Mike - I most definitely will pay my local drugstore a visit and get
back to you with that data.  It is a Long's by the way.

Today, received this very interesting flyer (which, before responding
to your question, I would have tossed without a second look...) from
Yves Rocher - "Beauty fresh from Nature" - includes a large variety of
alternative products.  Shampoo and conditioner - brand is Phytum -
"Enriched with Jojoba Oil extracts for nourishment and repair" -
6.8oz, list is $6 and they are selling through the mail for $2.95. 
I'd like to mail you the flyer but we are restricted from exchanging
personal information...

Please give me a couple days more with the off-Web data, I'm flooded
with work and need to put a few projects behind me.

best,
ragingacademic

---

Clarification of Answer by ragingacademic-ga on 24 Jan 2004 13:17 PST

Hello again Mike - I've finally managed to disconnect from the screen
for long enough to hop over to Long's and find out what relevant
haircare products they carry; I was expecting two or three, was
actually quite surprised.  I could not write down too much information
because every couple of minutes an employee would wander by to see
what I was up to... (they're very sensitive to competitors price
shopping...)  Here it is then...

+ Abba Pure & Natural, 10.1oz @ $4.99

http://www.joybeauty.com/original/abba/

+ American Crew - for men (!!!) 8.45 oz @ $7.99-8.99

+ Bain de Terre "Botanical Boost" 10.2oz $6.79

+ Biosilk (Farouk Systems) 11.6oz @ $7.99

+ Cell*U*Plex "Thicker, Fuller Hair" 12oz @ $4.49

+ Citre Shine "Nature's Prescription for Shine" 16oz @ $3.59

+ Garnier Fructis 13oz @ $3.69

http://www.garnierfructis.com/

+ Mastery Nature's Technology 12oz @ $8.99

+ Nature's Gate Organics 12oz @ $4.99-5.99

+ Neutrogena Therapeutic - wide selection - e.g. 8.5oz shampoo @ $8.59

+ Rusk Sensories, various fragrances and ingredients (four different
types) 4oz $3.99 and 13oz $8.99

+ Tea Tree (by Paul Mitchell - this company does not just sell to
salons nowadays...); shampoo 16.9oz @$20.99 and conditioner 10.14oz
@$10.94

http://www.paulmitchell.com/site/subpage.asp?section=2,10

+ Tibet "Beauty through balance" 8.45oz @ $4.99

Mike, it's been a pleasure working for you on this; I hope that if you
have any future needs you'll ask for me by name (just add "for
ragingacademic" in the subject).

best regards,
ragingacademic

---

Request for Answer Clarification by englishresearcher-ga on 24 Jan 2004 13:49 PST

Dear RagingAcademic,

Thank you greatly for this real world information which is really helpful. 

I shall follow your advice regarding the personalisation of my next
question. It should appear within the next day or two.

Best regards,

Mike

---

Clarification of Answer by ragingacademic-ga on 24 Jan 2004 14:41 PST

Mike, excellent, thanks.
I'm glad this research has met your requirements.

(...had to answer to clear the "Clarify Response" on my end :-)

I'll look forward to seeing that next question!

ragingacademic

Good answer for a tricky subject.