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Q: Blackjack odds ( Answered 5 out of 5 stars,   7 Comments )
Question  
Subject: Blackjack odds
Category: Science > Math
Asked by: scaryberry-ga
List Price: $20.00
Posted: 01 Jun 2004 15:21 PDT
Expires: 01 Jul 2004 15:21 PDT
Question ID: 354948
AFAIK, if you use a "cheat sheet" at blackjack, you lower the house
advantage to less than 1%.  I'm curious as to why there's any house
advantage, regardless of cheat sheets or no.  You have a deck of
cards: one hand goes to one player, one hand to the other.  Assuming
they follow the same strategy (stand on 17, hit on 16), why does the
house have any advantage at all?

I will give a bonus tip (this should be a separate question) for links
to printable blackjack strategy matrixes (matrices?), and/or a link to
the "best" strategy grid (with short explanation as to why it's the
"best").

Thanks in advance,

Scary
Answer  
Subject: Re: Blackjack odds
Answered By: pinkfreud-ga on 01 Jun 2004 21:36 PDT
Rated:5 out of 5 stars
 
I'm glad to have been able to help explain the house's edge. I've
reposted the link below, with some additional material that I think
you'll find to be of interest.

"Let's use as a starting point a player who 'mimics the dealer,' that
is, hits all his hands of 16 or less regardless of the dealer's face
card. A player who mimics the dealer would face a casino edge of about
5.5%. This is because when the dealer and player break on the same
hand, the dealer wins. The probability of the dealer breaking is 28%
and the player who mimics the dealer strategy would also break 28% of
the time. The 'double bust' would therefore occur 28% times 28% or 8%
of the time. A player would be at an 8% disadvantage, but this ignores
the bonus payoffs that players receive when they get blackjack (which
occurs once in about 20 hands). When you factor the extra blackjack
payoff, the 'mimic the dealer' player faces a casino edge of 5.5%."

Casino City Times: How to Cut the Casino's Edge in Blackjack
http://tamburin.casinocitytimes.com/articles/1299.html

"The house derives its advantage in blackjack simply because the
player has to draw first and if he busts, the player automatically
losses regardless if the dealer subsequently busts in the same round.
This is the casino's sole advantage in blackjack and if everything
were equal the house edge in blackjack would be 8% (the dealer and
player each have a 28% probability of busting therefore 28 times 28 or
about 8% of the time both hands would bust and the dealer would win).

But fortunately for us, not all is equal when you play blackjack.
Players have certain advantages that are not available to the dealer.
What are they? For one the player gets a 3 to 2 bonus payoff on a
blackjack whereas the dealer only gets paid at 1 to 1 on a blackjack
(advantage to player). Also, a player can double his wager in
favorable situations (like being dealt a two card 11) whereas the
dealer can not double down (advantage to player). Players can also
split pairs whereas dealers cannot (advantage to player). Also,
players can stand on say, 16, whereas a dealer must always hit a 16
(advantage to player)."

Casiono.com: House Advantage in Blackjack
http://www.casino.com/blackjack/article.asp?id=1848

Here you'll find some blackjack strategy grids:

Blackjack School: Basic Strategy Matrix
http://www.blackjack-school.com/GM-BlackjackSchool/Downloads/BasicStrategyMatrix.html

This is the same grid as the link above, but in .pdf file format,
which may make a nicer-looking printout:

Blackjack School: Basic Strategy Matrix
http://www.blackjack-school.com/GM-BlackjackSchool/Downloads/BasicStrategyMatrix.pdf

Betting on the Net: Blackjack Basic Strategy
http://www.betting-on-the-net.com/blackjack_basic_strategy3.html

Greg Dooley: Basic Blackjack Strategy
http://www.gregdooley.com/wedding/pic_bjstrategy.html

4 Online Gambling: Blackjack Basic Strategy
http://www.4online-gambling.com/blackjackstrategy.htm

Finally, I'll suggest my choice for the best strategy grid. This site
offers a utility that I found fascinating. It develops a customized
strategy matrix for blackjack after you choose several options related
to the game (such as how many decks are in the shoe, and several
variants of the rules).

Scroll about halfway down the page to reach the customized chart-maker:

Blackjack Info: The Blackjack Basic Strategy Engine
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php

Some blackjack-related directories:

Google Directory: Blackjack
http://directory.google.com/Top/Games/Gambling/Blackjack/

Google Directory: Blackjack Systems
http://directory.google.com/Top/Games/Gambling/Blackjack/Systems/

This were the search strings that gave me the best results:

Google Web Search: blackjack "house OR house's advantage OR edge"
://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=blackjack+%22house+OR+house%27s+advantage+OR+edge

Google Web Search: "blackjack" + "strategy" + "grid OR matrix"
://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=blackjack+strategy+grid+OR+matrix

I hope this helps! If anything is unclear, please request
clarification; I'll be glad to offer further assistance.

Best wishes,
pinkfreud
scaryberry-ga rated this answer:5 out of 5 stars and gave an additional tip of: $21.00
As always, pinkfreud, a great answer.  Thanks for the help.

Comments  
Subject: Re: Blackjack odds
From: scubajim-ga on 01 Jun 2004 16:19 PDT
 
Because you can count cards (which is not cheating).  By keeping track
of what cards have already been played in the deck you can make a
larger bet when the odds are in your favor and a small bet when they
are not.  The odds are not the same as you go through the deck or
decks of cards.  The proportion of face cards to the total number of
cards will go up and down as you play hands and the deck(s) are not
shuffled.  So if you play many many hands you can "tip the balance in
your favor" by betting well and counting cards. (and knowing what to
do with the count of the cards)  It is not easy, and most casinos will
ask you to leave (and perhaps not politely) if they think you are
counting cards.  There are mechanical and electronic devices to help
you count cards, but these are illegal so don't even try those.

There was a TV show on the MIT Blackjack Team and one of their players
even runs a seminar on how to do it.  However, I think most casinos
now use a large shoe that consists of many decks, the decks are
shuffled frequently, and they are mechanically shuffled to improve the
randomness of the shuffle.  Hence it is now very difficult to count
cards and make any money at it.
Subject: Re: Blackjack odds
From: scaryberry-ga on 01 Jun 2004 16:44 PDT
 
Right - I can understand why the gambler can lower the house advantage
through various methods.  My original question was more along the
lines of "why is there a house advantage at all"?  What puts the
gambler at an immediate 2-3% disadvantage to begin with?
Subject: Re: Blackjack odds
From: pinkfreud-ga on 01 Jun 2004 16:49 PDT
 
This may be helpful:

"Let's use as a starting point a player who 'mimics the dealer,' that
is, hits all his hands of 16 or less regardless of the dealer's face
card. A player who mimics the dealer would face a casino edge of about
5.5%. This is because when the dealer and player break on the same
hand, the dealer wins. The probability of the dealer breaking is 28%
and the player who mimics the dealer strategy would also break 28% of
the time. The 'double bust' would therefore occur 28% times 28% or 8%
of the time. A player would be at an 8% disadvantage, but this ignores
the bonus payoffs that players receive when they get blackjack (which
occurs once in about 20 hands). When you factor the extra blackjack
payoff, the 'mimic the dealer' player faces a casino edge of 5.5%."

http://tamburin.casinocitytimes.com/articles/1299.html
Subject: Re: Blackjack odds
From: scaryberry-ga on 01 Jun 2004 18:18 PDT
 
Excellent pinkfreud.  Funny how things can seem so obvious once
they're revealed.  Feel free to resubmit as an answer, or go for the
split and answer the additional reference question as well.

Thanks,

Scary
Subject: Re: Blackjack odds
From: respree-ga on 01 Jun 2004 20:08 PDT
 
The house's advantage is that the player has to draw first.
Subject: Re: Blackjack odds
From: pinkfreud-ga on 01 Jun 2004 21:39 PDT
 
Please excuse an error in my answer. In the sentence "This were the
search strings that gave me the best results," I should have begun
with the word "these" rather than "this." Sometimes the fingers go
faster than the mind. ;-)

~pinkfreud
Subject: Re: Blackjack odds
From: pinkfreud-ga on 02 Jun 2004 08:52 PDT
 
Thank you for the kind words, the five stars, and the very generous tip!

~pinkfreud

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