Whew! This has been a project.
I've found a number of books that appear to meet your needs. I've
listed them below, along with links to information about the book --
either reader comments, jacket blurbs, or information from the book
I've also included links to sites to purchase the books, where such links exist.
In the course of my searching, I also came across a number of fairly
academic articles on the topic of market timing as applied to mutual
fund management or investing -- I've included these here as well,
since they did not seem to fit neatly into any particular category
(books, newsletters, etc) that you had asked about in any of your
questions, yet I thought you would be interested in them just the
Once again, please let me know if you feel a need for any additional
information. Just tell me how I can help, and I am at your service.
The RSL Market Timing System
How to Pinpoint Market Turns in Mutual Funds, Futures and Options
by Humphrey Lloyd
Windsor Books, 1991
"A powerful new timing method, designed to give each investor the
ability to call market turns as they occur. Tested for over ten
years in mutual funds, the method has produced profits on better than
4 out of 5 trades. More important, gains are more than ten times
larger than losses. "
[book can be ordered from the above link]
A time-tested, disciplined approach to trading the market. Unique
market timing method applies to mutual funds, stocks, and futures.
Utilizes a combination of indicators, some classic and several totally
new, that work in real-time trading. Includes a detailed performance
record that verifies the system's accuracy. Step-by-step rules are
Market Timing With No-Load Mutual Funds: Low-Risk High Return
Investing With No Commissions
by Paul A. Merriman
H. Holt (1987)
[book can be ordered at the above link]
Merriman is editor and publisher of The Fund Exchange [making] a case
for the long term advantage of repeatedly purchasing mutual funds at
periodic low prices and selling at -- guess what -- higher prices. The
key to identifying ideal times to take action, they say, is to track
moving averages of fund prices.
"The New Mutual Fund Investment Advisor," by Richard Dorf.
Probus Publishing. 1991.
Chapter 7 is devoted to Market timing of Mutual funds.
[thanks to umiat-ga for this one!]
Power Investing with Sector Funds
Mutual Fund Timing and Allocation Strategies
St Lucie Press, 1st edition, 1998
"By learning to read the direction and strengths of the market, even
novice mutual fund investors can outperform the best stock pickers.
That's because up to 90 percent of a stock's price movement is
determined by trends in the market or the industry-not in the
qualities of the company. By using point-and-figure charting
techniques, Power Investing With Sector Funds supplies a simple and
effective way to gauge the ebb-and-flow of the stock market, and ways
to invest in the best-performing sectors at the right time, both in
the U.S. and abroad."
Detailed table of contents can be found here:
Book can be purchased here:
...only Power Investing with Sector Funds supplies a simple and
effective technique for gauging ebbs and flows in the market -- and
investing in the best-performing sectors at the right time, both in
the U.S. and abroad.
...With the help of four technical tools -- charting, trend lines,
20-week moving averages, and relative strength -- the book completely
covers the principles of diversification, asset allocation, and sector
investing. Best of all, the system outlined here takes just 15 minutes
a day and is a boon for both independent investors and professionals.
50 Ways to Mutual Fund Profits
by Alan Lavine
McGraw-Hill Higher Ed., 1998
50 Ways to Mutual Fund Profits provides explanations of 50 of the best
mutual fund strategies. These strategies, ranging from very
conservative to very aggressive, cover virtually every approach to
mutual fund investing.
Specific topics include:
--Momentum investing approaches;
--Mutual fund switching tactics...
The book can be purchased here:
Investment Management: Portfolio Diversification, Risk and Timing -
Fact and Fiction
by Robert Hagin
John Wiley & Sons, 2004
Timing is discussed throughout the book...Chapter 35 deals
specifically with mutual funds.
[book can be purchased here]
The Worldly Investor's Guide to Beating the Market
by Ben Warwick
John Wiley & Sons, 1st edition, 2001
The Wordly Investor Guide to Beating the Market, offers individual
investors twelve highly effective yet simple market-beating strategies
that cover the full range of stock trading, including momentum,
growth, value, distressed stocks, and exchange-traded funds.
- A method for selecting the mutual fund with the best odds of
producing market-beating returns in the next twelve months
Chapter 12. Market Timing Strategies with Mutual Funds and Exchange-Traded Funds
In Part Four, Warwick provides a thorough guide to selecting mutual
funds and an incisive overview of the market timing strategies most frequently
used by mutual fund and exchange-traded fund investors.
A New Look at Technical Analysis
by Robert McCullough
USA Import, 1st edition, 1994
There's big money to be made by learning how to time market trades.
Timing markets means learning how to use charting and technical
Chapter 7.Trading Mutual Funds
Mutual Fund Timing with Your Own Computer
[NOTE: this is a videotape "book"]
and a related page:
Why I Time the Market and How I Do It.
Panic-Proof Investing: Lessons in Profitable Investing from a Market Wizard
Thomas F. Basso
Discusses timing throughout the book, as with this excerpt from page 47:
" ... in Atlanta, Neil Granite, told Jim about something called a
mutual fund timing program. This timing program moved money between
mutual funds based on trends measured by computer models....During
sideways markets, the program would jump in when the market moved up,
then jump out when the up move proved short-lived..."
That's it for the books. As for the academic articles I mentioned, they are:
Market Timing and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation
Roy D. Henriksson
The Journal of Business, Vol. 57, No. 1, Part 1. (Jan., 1984), pp. 73-96.
The evaluation of the performance of investment managers is a topic of
considerable interest to practitioners and academics alike. Using both
the parametric and non-parametric tests for the evaluation of
forecasting ability presented by Henriksson and Merton, the
market-timing ability of 116 open-end mutual funds is evaluated for
the period 1968-80. The empirical results do not support the
hypothesis that mutual fund managers are able to follow an investment
strategy that successfully times the return on the market portfolio.
Measuring Fund Strategy and Performance in Changing Economic Conditions
Wayne E. Ferson; Rudi W. Schadt
The Journal of Finance, Vol. 51, No. 2. (Jun., 1996), pp. 425-461.
The use of predetermined variables to represent public information and
time-variation has produced new insights about asset pricing models,
but the literature on mutual fund performance has not exploited these
insights. This paper advocates conditional performance evaluation in
which the relevant expectations are conditioned on public information
variables. We modify several classical performance measures to this
end and find that the predetermined variables are both statistically
and economically significant. Conditioning on public information
controls for biases in traditional market timing models and makes the
average performance of the mutual funds in our sample look better.
Market Timing, Selectivity, and Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Investigation
Cheng-Few Lee; Shafiqur Rahman
The Journal of Business, Vol. 63, No. 2. (Apr., 1990), pp. 261-278.
This article empirically examines market timing and selectivity
performance of a sample of mutual funds. It uses a very simple
regression technique to separate stock selection ability from timing
ability. This technique, first suggested by Treynor and Mazuy and
later refined by Bhattacharya and Pfleiderer, uses a modified
security-market line approach to produce individual measures of timing
and stock selection ability. The inputs to the model are only the
returns earned on the fund and those earned on the market portfolio.
The Market-Timing Performance of Mutual Fund Managers
Stanley J. Kon
The Journal of Business, Vol. 56, No. 3. (Jul., 1983), pp. 323-347.
This paper proposes an empirical methodology for measuring the
market-timing performance of an investment manager and provides
evidence for a sample of mutual funds. The results indicate that at
the individual fund level there is evidence of significant superior
timing ability and performance. However, the multivariate tests were
not inconsistent with the efficient markets hypothesis. That is, fund
managers as a group have no special information regarding the
formation of expectations on the returns of the market portfolio.
Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds
William Fung; David A. Hsieh
The Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 10, No. 2. (Summer, 1997), pp. 275-302
This article presents some new results on an unexplored dataset on
hedge fund performance. The results indicate that hedge funds follow
strategies that are dramatically different from mutual funds, and
support the claim that these strategies are highly dynamic. The
article finds five dominant investment styles in hedge funds, which
when added to Sharpe's (1992) asset class factor model can provide an
integrated framework for style analysis of both buy-and-hold and
dynamic trading strategies.
Again, let me know if you need any additional information. In
particular, I am well aware that different authors use the term
"mutual fund timing" in different ways. If any of the materials here
miss the mark in terms of your own use of this term and your own
interests, let me know in what way, and I'll do my best to pinpoint
other sources that meet your needs.
Best of luck with you quest,
Search strategy: Searched several book, news, and journal databases,
as well as Google, for: [ "mutual funds" timing ]