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 Subject: "For pafalafa-ga" Category: Miscellaneous Asked by: gapgapgap-ga List Price: \$200.00 Posted: 08 Oct 2004 12:35 PDT Expires: 07 Nov 2004 11:35 PST Question ID: 412186
 `You know what I need`
 ```gapgapgap-ga, I hope you won't mind a fairly brief answer to your generously-priced question. The real challenge to your question is finding the appropriate data sources to reflect the distribution in the population of the features you're interested in: earnings, education, age. Once identifying the best sources, buried deep in the bowels of the Census Bureau and the IRS, the calculations of the odds are not that lengthy a process. So here we go... There are 1,878,460 full time workers in the US in the age range 35-44 who did not graduate from high school (see source #1, listed below). Using the same logic as zeroaffinity-ga did for your previous question, one-tenth this number 187,846 are full-time working men or women who did not graduate high school. Therefore, out of the entire population of the US of 294 million (again, the same number used by zeroaffinity-ga), the odds of selecting at random a person from the population that has a full-time job and that did not graduate high school is: 186,846 / 294 million = 0.00064 This is equivalent to one chance out of 1,573. Similarly, there are 19,102 people in the US who earned \$5 million or more in 2002 (source #2), so by the same sort of reasoning: 19,102 / 294 million = 0.000065 (remarkably similar to the above number, except for a little thing called a leading zero in front of the "6"). This is equivalent to one chance out of 15,384. Multiplying (again following zeroaffinity-ga), we get: 0.00064 x 0.000065 = 0.000000042 This is equivalent to one chance out of 23.8 million. At this point, there have been so many numbers tossed around in the two questions you have asked, that no one could blame you if they cause some confusion, or appear to contain contradictions. As always, though, if you would like any additional information on this topic, all you have to do is ask. All the best, pafalafa-ga sources of information: 1. http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/earnings/call1usboth.html Earnings By Occupation and Education 35 to 44 years 2. http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/02in03at.xls Table 3.--Number of Individual Income Tax Returns, Income, Exemptions and Deductions, Tax, and Average Tax, by Size of Adjusted Gross Income, Tax Years 2000-2002``` Request for Answer Clarification by gapgapgap-ga on 11 Oct 2004 07:59 PDT ```Sorry, I have been out of touch. I would like you to cut and paste the answer to this framed with my language. It will be useful to me if it comes from you. The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years of age who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of \$5 million a year is___________ to 1. The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years of age who does not have a high school diploma accumulating a net worth in excess of \$20 million is___________ to 1. The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years of age who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of \$5 million a year and who has a net worth in excess of \$20 million is___________ to 1. This is really how I would like to see my question answered. Can you accommodate?``` Clarification of Answer by pafalafa-ga on 11 Oct 2004 13:10 PDT ```Here you go. I've modified the language just a bit to make these consistent with the data workups in your actual questions. Please note that the third item is only my "guesstimate" since it is not a statistic that was actually computed in the answering of your previous questions (and I don't think the available data actually would allow such a computation, so a common-sense estimate might be the best figure available). As always, let me know if you have any questions. pafalafa-ga ========== The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person 35-44 years of age who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of \$5 million a year is 23.8 million to 1. The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years of age who does not have a high school diploma accumulating a net worth in excess of \$20 million is 3.1 million to 1.``` Clarification of Answer by pafalafa-ga on 11 Oct 2004 13:46 PDT ```Here's the third one: The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years of age who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of \$5 million a year and who has a net worth in excess of \$20 million is approximately 2.5 million to 1.``` Request for Answer Clarification by gapgapgap-ga on 11 Oct 2004 14:28 PDT ```The third one confuses me. It dosent seem likely that the combined chance of occurrence for both could be greater than it is for just 1. Could possibly double check something there.``` Clarification of Answer by pafalafa-ga on 11 Oct 2004 15:52 PDT ```Thanks for catching my typo...should be: The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years of age who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of \$5 million a year and who has a net worth in excess of \$20 million is approximately 4.5 million to 1.``` Request for Answer Clarification by gapgapgap-ga on 11 Oct 2004 17:25 PDT ```Hi Again...can I try this again. Could we try one last time to get it as I have requested ( note the consistant age of the subject ). I would really appreciate your going through this once more and using a consitant age. Im 41, so I would like to see it in my age. The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the ages of 35 and 44 years old who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of \$5 million a year is___________ to 1. The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the ages of 35 and 44 years old of age who does not have a high school diploma accumulating a net worth in excess of \$20 million is___________ to 1. The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the ages of 35 and 44 years old who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of \$5 million a year and who has a net worth in excess of \$20 million is___________ to 1.``` Clarification of Answer by pafalafa-ga on 12 Oct 2004 18:11 PDT ```gapgpgap-ga, I want to double-check everything to make sure I've got all the i's dotted and t's crossed, as they say. Stay tuned...I'll probably have the final numbers for you tomorrow in the format you requested. paf``` Clarification of Answer by pafalafa-ga on 13 Oct 2004 08:08 PDT ```All right, here we go: ========== The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the ages of 35 and 44 years old who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of \$5 million a year is 2.4 million to 1. The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the ages of 35 and 44 years old of age who does not have a high school diploma accumulating a net worth in excess of \$20 million is 1.5 million to 1. The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the ages of 35 and 44 years old who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of \$5 million a year and who has a net worth in excess of \$20 million is 4.5 million to 1. ========== These odds are different than cited earlier -- more in the million-to-one range, rather than tens-of-millions-to-one -- because the parameters have changed. I've recalculated for both genders, and for everyone in the 35-44 age range. And as I said earlier, the third number is more a guesstimate than the others. Let me know if there's anything else you need. pafalafa-ga```
 ```Geeee............. I don't :( Steph53```
 `step53-ga...Now you do!`