You know what I need

gapgapgap-ga,


I hope you won't mind a fairly brief answer to your generously-priced question.  

The real challenge to your question is finding the appropriate data
sources to reflect the distribution in the population of the features
you're interested in:  earnings, education, age.

Once identifying the best sources, buried deep in the bowels of the
Census Bureau and the IRS, the calculations of the odds are not that
lengthy a process.

So here we go...

There are 1,878,460  full time workers in the US in the age range
35-44 who did not graduate from high school (see source #1, listed
below).

Using the same logic as zeroaffinity-ga did for your previous
question, one-tenth this number 187,846 are full-time working  men or
women who did not graduate high school.

Therefore, out of the entire population of the US of 294 million
(again, the same number used by zeroaffinity-ga), the odds of
selecting at random a person from the population that has a full-time
job and that did not graduate high school is:

186,846 / 294 million = 0.00064 
This is equivalent to one chance out of 1,573.


Similarly, there are 19,102 people in the US who earned $5 million or
more in 2002 (source #2), so by the same sort of reasoning:

19,102 / 294 million = 0.000065 (remarkably similar to the above
number, except for a little thing called a leading zero in front of
the "6").
This is equivalent to one chance out of 15,384.

Multiplying (again following zeroaffinity-ga), we get:

0.00064  x  0.000065 = 0.000000042

This is equivalent to one chance out of 23.8 million.


At this point, there have been so many numbers tossed around in the
two questions you have asked, that no one could blame you if they
cause some confusion, or appear to contain contradictions.

As always, though, if you would like any additional information on
this topic, all you have to do is ask.

All the best,

pafalafa-ga


sources of information:

1.  http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/earnings/call1usboth.html
Earnings By Occupation and Education
35 to 44 years          


2.  http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/02in03at.xls
Table 3.--Number of Individual Income Tax Returns, Income, Exemptions
and Deductions, Tax, and Average Tax, by Size of Adjusted Gross
Income, Tax Years 2000-2002

---

Request for Answer Clarification by gapgapgap-ga on 11 Oct 2004 07:59 PDT

Sorry, I have been out of touch.  I would like you to cut and paste
the answer to this framed with my language.  It will be useful to me
if it comes from you.

The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years
of age who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of $5
million a year is___________ to 1.


The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years
of age who does not have a high school diploma accumulating  a net
worth in excess of $20 million is___________ to 1.


The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years
of age who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of $5
million a year and who has a net worth in excess of $20 million
is___________ to 1.

This is really how I would like to see my question answered.  Can you accommodate?

---

Clarification of Answer by pafalafa-ga on 11 Oct 2004 13:10 PDT

Here you go.  I've modified the language just a bit to make these
consistent with the data workups in your actual questions.

Please note that the third item is only my "guesstimate" since it is
not a statistic that was actually computed in the answering of your
previous questions (and I don't think the available data actually
would allow such a computation, so a common-sense estimate might be
the best figure available).

As always, let me know if you have any questions.  

pafalafa-ga


==========



The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person 35-44 years
of age who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of $5
million a year is 23.8 million to 1.


The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years
of age who does not have a high school diploma accumulating a net
worth in excess of $20 million is 3.1 million to 1.

---

Clarification of Answer by pafalafa-ga on 11 Oct 2004 13:46 PDT

Here's the third one:


The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years
of age who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of $5
million a year and who has a net worth in excess of $20 million
is approximately 2.5 million to 1.

---

Request for Answer Clarification by gapgapgap-ga on 11 Oct 2004 14:28 PDT

The third one confuses me. It dosent seem likely that the combined
chance of occurrence for both could be greater than it is for just 1.
Could possibly double check something there.

---

Clarification of Answer by pafalafa-ga on 11 Oct 2004 15:52 PDT

Thanks for catching my typo...should be:

The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person over 25 years
of age who does not have a high school diploma earning in excess of $5
million a year and who has a net worth in excess of $20 million
is approximately 4.5 million to 1.

---

Request for Answer Clarification by gapgapgap-ga on 11 Oct 2004 17:25 PDT

Hi Again...can I try this again. Could we try one last time to get it
as I have requested ( note the consistant age of the subject ). I
would really appreciate your going through this once more and using a
consitant age. Im 41, so I would like to see it in my age.


The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the
ages of 35 and 44 years old who does not have a high school diploma
earning in excess of $5 million a year is___________ to 1.


The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the
ages of 35 and 44 years old of age who does not have a high school
diploma accumulating  a net worth in excess of $20 million
is___________ to 1.


The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the
ages of 35 and 44 years old who does not have a high school diploma
earning in excess of $5 million a year and who has a net worth in
excess of $20 million is___________ to 1.

---

Clarification of Answer by pafalafa-ga on 12 Oct 2004 18:11 PDT

gapgpgap-ga,

I want to double-check everything to make sure I've got all the i's
dotted and t's crossed, as they say.

Stay tuned...I'll probably have the final numbers for you tomorrow in
the format you requested.

paf

---

Clarification of Answer by pafalafa-ga on 13 Oct 2004 08:08 PDT

All right, here we go:


==========

The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the
ages of 35 and 44 years old who does not have a high school diploma
earning in excess of $5 million a year is 2.4 million to 1.


The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the
ages of 35 and 44 years old of age who does not have a high school
diploma accumulating  a net worth in excess of $20 million
is 1.5 million to 1.


The statistical chances for the occurrence of a person between the
ages of 35 and 44 years old who does not have a high school diploma
earning in excess of $5 million a year and who has a net worth in
excess of $20 million is 4.5 million to 1.


==========


These odds are different than cited earlier -- more in the
million-to-one range, rather than tens-of-millions-to-one  -- because
the parameters have changed.  I've recalculated for both genders, and
for everyone in the 35-44 age range.

And as I said earlier, the third number is more a guesstimate than the others.

Let me know if there's anything else you need.

pafalafa-ga

Geeee............. I don't :(

Steph53

step53-ga...Now you do!