Hi There!

I'm working on a project for a big client.  He's tasked me to predict
the future in a probabilistic manner.  So, I'm dusting off my Crystal Ball.

Here are some examples for the period 2005-2025.  The numbers are
probabilities these events will occur:

World population exceeds  8 billion                  95%
World population exceeds 12 billion                  20%
China's GDP growth averages 5%+ per year             60%
USA sends a man to the Moon                          20%
USA sends a man to Mars                             < 1%
Average female life expectancy exceeds 90 years      25%
Worldwide military budgets grow 6%+ per year         60%
South American wheat production declines             30%
Oil exceeds $100 per barrel                          15%
Elvis returns and he looks grrrreat                 < 1%

You get the idea.  My client is looking for a mixture of sure things,
probable things, and completely wacky long-shots.  (I'm an old guy. 
Have you ever noticed how long-shots seem to happen much more often
than probability says they should?!  Maybe that's how rich people get
rich!)

A 5-star answer would be 50 one-line predictions.  No supporting
doumentation or web sites are needed.  I'm just looking for some ideas
and some opinions.
If you're creative or drink a lot, you could probably "brainstorm" the
50 predictions based upon reading the newspaper.  This project
involves creative intuition----with a small dose of logic and
probabilities added on...


All comments appreciated.
Wacky and nutty ideas especially appreciated!

Thanks.
ron

P.S.   If the orginal 50 ideas are accepted by the client, then the
tip will be $1 for each one-liner between 51 and 200.  Hence, if the
client likes the work, this question could be worth $200 total.  Thx!

Dear ron,

Here you go.


1.  Cathode-ray tube (CRT) monitors and televisions are no longer
manufactured:  90%

2.  Computer clock rates reach the 50 GHz mark:  60%

3.  Computer clock rates hit a physical limit beyond which no substantial
increase is possible:  5%

4.  Thousands of people implant computer hardware in their brains:  20%

5.  An intelligent computer is destroyed, and the police treat it as a
homicide:  < 1%

6.  The USA officially abandons imperial measurements and goes metric:  60%

7.  Fewer than 50% of the US population is of European extraction:  40%

8.  Spanish is established as an official language of government in
California:  20%

9.  Some Indian corporations outsource their call centers to the United
States:  11%

10.  China becomes fully democratic:  80%

11.  China wages war on Taiwan:  35%

12.  China succeeds in absorbing Taiwan:  13%

13.  A new Republic of Kurdistan gains international recognition:  20%

14.  Turkey joins the European Union:  50%

15.  Russia joins the European Union:  33%

16.  At least one country withdraws from the European Union:  9%

17.  The USA withdraws from the United Nations:  3%

18.  No new cases of smallpox are reported from 2005 through 2025:  90%

19.  The flu virus mutates and hardens into a lethal threat:  40%

20.  Stem-cell research yields no appreciable results by 2025:  25%

21.  Scientists develop an effective treatment for most forms of cancer:  10%

22.  Cosmetic surgeons carry out face transplants on wealthy clients:  2%

23.  The USA continues to have the world's largest GDP:  95%

24.  Brazil exports more wheat than the United States:  50%

25.  Argentina's GDP exceeds that of Italy:  10%

26.  The marathon world record is under 2 hours:  40%

27.  The 100m sprint world record is under 9.5 seconds:  10%

28.  An African nation competes at the Winter Olympics:  70%

29.  An African city makes a successful bid to host the Summer Olympics:  25%

30.  The NFL approves some steroids for routine use by its players:  15%

31.  No athlete fails a doping test at the 2024 Olympics:  < 1%

32.  Microsoft operating systems power fewer than 90% of desktop computers:  95%

33.  Microsoft operating systems power fewer than 50% of desktop computers:  60%

34.  The world's richest man is a Chinese citizen:  30%

35.  Worldwide oil production is higher in 2025 than in 2005:  45%

36.  Worldwide coal production is higher in 2025 than in 2005:  70%

37.  The total sales receipts of the video-game industry are higher than
those of the film industry:  66%

38.  US book sales in 2025 are less than 90% of their 2005 level:  80%

39.  US book sales in 2025 are less than 50% of their 2005:  40%

40.  The Golden Globes are widely acknowledged as more important than
the Oscars:  10%

41.  The Sundance Festival is widely acknowledged as more important than
the Oscars:  3%

42.  The cost of a recreational space flight drops under $1 million:  75%

43.  A vacation resort is built on the moon:  15%

44.  Sedans outsell SUVs in the United States:  50%

45.  Fewer than 50% of new automobiles are powered by gasoline-only engines: 75%

46.  A 100-kilometer electric charge for the average automobile costs
less than the equivalent amount of gasoline:  60%

47.  5% of the mammal, bird, and fish species known in 2005 are extinct
by 2025:  80%

48.  25% of the mammal, bird, and fish species known in 2005 are extinct
by 2025:  25%

49.  The United States joins the Kyoto Protocol:  50%

50.  The oceans rise and wash away part of the Netherlands:  50%


I may add a few more later, but I don't know if I can manage 150.

Regards,

leapinglizard

---

Clarification of Answer by leapinglizard-ga on 28 Dec 2004 13:53 PST

Hey, thanks for the rating. I've been working on a bunch more
probabilities. I'll post the lot later this evening.

leapinglizard

---

Clarification of Answer by leapinglizard-ga on 28 Dec 2004 22:20 PST

Here we go. I was really hoping for that $150 tip, but a $50 question
with a $100 tip would amount to nearly the same thing. Or, better yet,
a pair of $2 questions with a $73 tip for each.

leapinglizard


51.  Over 60% of email traffic consists of spam:  90%

52.  Over 90% of email traffic consists of spam:  40%

53.  In an effort to curb spam, the US government imposes an email tax
of 1 cent or so per message on Internet service providers:  10%

54. The cheapest digital camera that isn't a toy has an optical resolution
of at least 10 megapixels:  95%

55.  The picture quality of the best digital cameras equals that of the
best film cameras:  75%

56.  Fewer than 1,000,000 film cameras are manufactured worldwide in 2025:  60%

57.  Skin-tight synthetic clothing is popular:  66%

58.  Transparent clothing is popular:  33%

59.  Expensive sneakers use motorized springs to make you run faster:  50%

60.  Desktop 3-D printers can output simple manufactured goods:  20%

61.  Maggots are routinely used to disinfect wounds:  85%

62.  Swarms of micro-scale robots carry out surgical procedures inside
the body:  60% 

63.  Swarms of nano-scale robots fight diseased cells inside the body:  3%

64.  At least 25% of American wheat is grown from genetically modified
strains:  60% 

65.  Gay marriage is legalized in at least one American state:  30%

66.  Gay marriage is legalized throughout the US by federal law:  10%

67.  Fewer than 20% of US adults smoke cigarettes:  66%

68.  Tobacco use is federally prohibited:  3%

69.  Marijuana is declared legal for recreational use in at least one
American state:  35%

70.  Alcohol is federally prohibited:  1%

71.  Over 50% of US marriages end in divorce:  75%

72.  Over 60% of US marriages end in divorce:  20%

73.  The Supreme Court decides that marriage is a private matter in
which the law should not intervene:  15%

74.  The Supreme Court decides that women may go topless wherever men
are permitted to do so: 30%

75.  Switzerland joins the European Union: 75%

76.  The European Union musters an army of its own:  90%

77.  Quebec secedes from Canada:  30%

78.  Quebec secedes from Canada but changes its mind and rejoins a few
years later:  10%

79.  Alberta secedes from Canada and joins the United States:  3%

80.  By 2025, the Democratic Party has regained control of the Presidency
and of both houses of Congress for at least one term:  60%

81.  The US election law is changed so that Arnold Schwarzenegger and
other naturalized US citizens may run for the Presidency:  25%

82.  Hillary Clinton has been elected President:  14%

83.  The Green Party has sent a Representative to Congress:  2%

84.  The Libertarian Party outperforms the Republicans or Democrats in
a Presidential election:  1%

85.  The Irish Republican Army ceases to exist as a meaningful force:  33%

86.  The Basque separatist movement ETA ceases to exist as a meaningful
force:  25%

87.  Several countries engage in military action to secure mining or
drilling rights in Antarctica:  25%

88.  A sovereign state is established in Antarctica:  10%

89.  India and Pakistan go to war over Kashmir:  77%

90.  The Kashmir struggle is permanently resolved with a peace treaty: 20%

91.  Pakistan detonates a nuclear weapon in anger:  6%

92.  North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon in anger:  4%

93.  Israel detonates a nuclear weapon in anger:  2%

94.  South Korea and North Korea merge into a united Korean republic: 25%

95.  Japan, Taiwan, and Thailand form an Asian Union to compete with
the European Union:  40%

96.  Australia joins the Asian Union:  25%

97.  China declares war on Russia:  17%

98.  China declares war on Japan:  14%

99.  A species that died out within the past 200 years is brought back
through biotechnology:  30%

100.  A dinosaur species is brought back through biotechnology:  3%

101.  Cosmetic dentistry has mastered the science of growing teeth:  60%

102.  Cloning gains widespread acceptance as a way to resurrect deceased
pets:  80%

103.  Cloning gains widespread acceptance as a way to resurrect deceased
children:  5%

104.  Cloning gains widespread acceptance as a way to recurrect deceased
CEOs of major corporations:  0.5%

105.  Most HIV-positive people in the United States can enjoy normal
lifespans with constant pharmacological therapy:  92%

106.  Most HIV-positive people in Africa can enjoy normal lifespans with
constant pharmacological therapy:  2%

107.  The American government institutes Canadian-style socialized health
care:  33%

108.  Top surgeons sell their services on web-based auction sites:  60%

109.  The US Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade:  40%

110.  Parents in 2025 routinely use genetic screening to choose some
physical attributes of their newborn children:  88%

111.  Parents in 2025 routinely use genetic screening to choose some
psychological attributes of their newborn children:  33%

112.  Advances in gene therapy mean that the children of 2025 will never
go bald:  1%

113.  Advances in herbal medicine mean that you can actually buy pills
online that make your breasts rounder or your abs firmer:  < 1%

114.  One US dollar is worth more than one Euro:  90%

115.  One Canadian dollar is worth more than one US dollar:  30%

116.  One Euro is worth more than two US dollars: 13%

117.  The US budget is balanced in 2025:  60%

118.  The US national debt decreases in real value between 2005 and 2025:  20%

119.  In 2025, the value of US exports exceeds the value of its imports: 10%

120.  The highest US income-tax bracket has a rate greater than 50%:  66%

121.  The highest US income-tax bracket has a rate less than 40%:  10%

122.  By executive decree, the IRS institutes a flat-rate income tax:  3%

123.  The government institutes a national sales tax:  60%

124.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average no longer includes IBM among its
components: 42%

125.  At least one new component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is
an Internet-era company founded in the 1990s:  84%

126.  The Nasdaq index becomes more widely recognized than the Dow Jones:  30%

127.  The Standard & Poor's 500 index becomes more widely recognized
than the Dow Jones:  15%

128.  Pennies are withdrawn from US circulation:  90%

129.  Nickels are withdrawn from US circulation:  60%

130.  The one-dollar bill is withdrawn from US circulation:  40%

131.  All coins are withdrawn from US circulation:  10%

132.  All cash is withdrawn from US circulation:  < 1%

133.  The Yankees win the World Series at least three times between 2005
and 2025:  40%

134.  The Red Sox win the World Series more often than the Yankees
between 2005 and 2025:  10%

135.  A minority of NFL quarterbacks in the 2025 draft are white:  75%

136.  A majority of NBA players come from outside the United States: 60%

137.  A professional sports team attracts a player with a contract worth
$1 billion or more:  55%

138.  Dressage is eliminated as an Olympic event:  40%

139.  Squash is added as an Olympic event:  15%

140.  Billiards is added as an Olympic event:  1%

141.  China wins more Olympic gold medals between 2008 and 2024 than
any other nation:  85%

142.  China wins a gold medal in Olympic basketball:  60%

143.  The United States soccer team reaches the World Cup semi-finals: 15%

144.  American Major League Soccer draws a greater audience than the NHL:  40%

145.  The NFL awards a franchise to a Canadian city:  23%

146.  The NHL awards a franchise to a Mexican city:  6%

147.  Basketball players have become so tall that the NBA increases the
regulation basketball height to keep the game interesting:  4%

148.  Digital postage replaces 95% of postage stamps:  90%

149.  First-class letter mail declines by 50%:  85%

150.  The United States Postal Service is privatized:  50%

151.  Venice sinks at least 6 inches:  70%

153.  The Tower of Pisa topples:  5%

152.  Venice sinks out of sight:  < 1%

154.  Chinese-made automobiles are sold in the United States:  95%

155.  Chinese-made automobiles account for at least 5% of the US market:  60%

156.  Chinese-made automobiles outsell Japanese-made ones in the United
States:  16%

157.  French automobiles return to the US market in a big way:  6%

158.  At least one American make of automobile is manufactured by robots
alone, without any human intervention:  40%

159.  A serious traffic accident is provably caused by a software bug
in a car's on-board computer:  60%

160.  The conventional broadcast networks control less than 50% of the
commercial television market:  85%

161.  Low-resolution commercial television is phased out entirely in
favor of HDTV broadcasts:  75%

162.  At least one commercial television station broadcasts mainly over
the Internet: 55%

163.  Satellite radio controls over 50% of the commercial radio market: 22%

164.  The digital version of the New York Times outsells the paper
version:  70%

165.  More local calls are placed over the Internet than through analog
phone lines:  20%

166.  More international calls are placed over the Internet than through
analog phone lines:  35%

167.  A popular new music-video performer is actually a lifelike digital
animation: 70%

168.  A popular new Hollywood actor is actually a lifelike digital
animation:  40%

169.  Boy bands are a thing of the past:  20%

170.  Heavy metal is a thing of the past:  5%

171.  A Bach remix reaches the top of the charts:  2%

172.  More than 50% of music albums are sold digitally through the
Internet: 95%

173.  The average cost of a music album is greater than $10:  90%

174.  More than 50% of digital music albums are pirated rather than
purchased: 33%

175.  Flying cars become a reality:  10%

176.  Flying carpets become a reality:  1%

177.  Teleportation becomes a reality:  < 1%

178.  A light railway is built in Manhattan:  77%

179.  A monorail is built in Manhattan:  44%

180.  The light railway is shut down in Los Angeles:  22%

181.  In 2025, there are 7,000,000 car accidents in the US:  90%

182.  The number of alcohol-related traffic accidents declines between
2005 and 2025: 60%

183.  Bicycle helmets are mandatory in most US cities:  80%

184.  Pedestrian helmets are mandatory in some US cities:  3%

185.  The water level of the Colorado River drops too far to permit
further diversion for agricultural irrigation:  90%

186.  Canada exports water from its underground reserves to US cities:  75%

187.  Saudi Arabia imports icebergs from Antarctica to bolster its water
supply:  45%

188.  The ocean becomes too saline to support some aquatic species:  20%

189.  The average global temperature rises by 0.5 degree Celsius between
2005 and 2025:  60%

190.  The average global temperature rises by 1.0 degree Celsius between
2005 and 2025:  20%

191.  Global warming begins to decline thanks to efforts to curb
greenhouse-gas emissions:  50%

192.  Global warming begins to decline due to the onset of an ice age:  13%

193.  Global temperatures drop so much that the CFC ban is lifted and
consumers are urged to use aerosol sprays as much as possible:  < 1%

194.  Most youth in 2025 believe that they are the most important
generation in world history:  99%

195.  Most adults in 2025 know that they are not the most important
generation in world history:  99%

196.  The Southern swarms of killer bees never advance far enough into
the United States to cause a problem:  90%

197.  As in the 19th century, a plague of Rocky Mountain locusts afflicts
the American Midwest:  33%

198.  As in the Old Testament, a plague of frogs afflicts the Midwest:  < 1%

199.  The end of the world is brought about by a man-made disaster:  0.1%

200.  The end of the world is brought about by a natural disaster:  0.01%

---

Clarification of Answer by leapinglizard-ga on 03 Jan 2005 08:31 PST

Have you had a chance to look over the 150 additional items I posted
above? I hope they meet with your approval.

leapinglizard

---

Request for Answer Clarification by nronronronro-ga on 05 Jan 2005 05:39 PST

leapinglizard---the additional 150 are grrreat!

I can't seem to tip you the $150 on this question, since it's already
been closed.  Hence, I've opened a new question (5:40 AM P.S.T.) just
for you.  That way, I can pay you.

Thanks again !!!
ron

---

Clarification of Answer by leapinglizard-ga on 05 Jan 2005 07:18 PST

I'm glad you approve!

leapinglizard

leapinglizard----fantastic!  The client was thoroughly impressed.  I
told him it wasn't my work, and that it was performed by someone named
Lizard.  He just grinned and stared at me...

In any event, the offer is still good for an additional 1 to 150
bullets.  Payment would be $1 each.  Hence, total would run from $1 to
$150.

Please add a comment or clarification to this question when you're
ready.   I'll then open a new question so I can pay you the additional
amount.  If you decide not to proceed, that is fine----you've already
done a grrreat job!

Thanks.
ron

I don't have the mental wherewithal for a list of 50, but here's the
first bunch that popped into my head...a bit of a holiday present for
one of our favorite customers:


Sea level will be 6 inches higher.....50%


US troops will be out of Iraq..........5%


A woman will have been elected president of the US.....40%


A black man will have been elected president of the US....25%


Parents will like their kids' music.....................<1%


There will be a Palestinian state........................75%


The Catholic Church will have ordained women.............25%


The Dow will be over $50,000............................75%


...over $100,000........................................10%


Boston will have won another World Series................<1%


The Turing Test will have been passed (machine intelligence
indistinguishable from human intelligence)..................5%


Artificial life will have been created in the lab..........50%

I dont think chances of a palestinian state are 75%.  I think the
whole problem in the middle east will evolve into a world war 3.

yea nobody said anything about world war 3...strange...

Greetings Nronronronro,

1.  The Google search engine will be likened to the great library of
Alexandria: 78%

2.  Although VCRs have become obsolete, setting the clock on a VCR
will finally be understood by all people: 13%

3.  A monkey supplied with a state-of-the-art laptop featuring
WetLink? technology will disprove Einstein's Theory of Relativity in a
work titled "Much Ado About Nothing."

4.  Jenna and Barbara Bush will be elected joint President of the US,
narrowly beating Democrat front-runners Mary Kate and Ashley Olsen:
<100%

5.  Stephen Hawking will correct the ultimate answer to life, the
universe, and everything from 42 to 43.1416: <43.1416%

Best regards,
journalist-ga

Oops, forgot my percent...

3.  A monkey supplied with a state-of-the-art laptop featuring
WetLink? technology will disprove Einstein's Theory of Relativity in a
work titled "Much Ado About Nothing": 61%

pafalafa----- insightful, as always!  Knowing you are from Brooklyn
added gravitas to your Boston prediction.  I don't know what would be
more painful:   watching worldwide flooding of coastal plains or
having to listen to my Bostonian friends drone on for days about the
Red Sox....

heh  heh  heh

Thanks!
ron

falcoboy7----you are right on the money!  When I was in the military,
we had Ops Plans "on the shelf" for every possible
contingency----including invading our own allies!

I'm sure the planning has intensified since then.

Let's hope people worldwide get hooked on Angelina Jolie, McDonald's,
Starbucks, and iPods.  That may be our bext hope for avoiding WW
III...   ;-)

ron

journalist---you have the sardonic wit of a...er...uh...um...journalist!

I was trying to understand the relationship between 43 and pi.  But
then I got hungry for banana cream pie, and gave it up.

Thanks for the chuckles.

ron

P.S.  Nietzsche wrote about monkeys, Shakespeare, and the Eternal Recurrence. 
So, do you stand up when they play "Deutschland Uber Alles" ?  Don't
answer!  I prefer to think of you as a sardonic (and probably
martini-drinking) journalist...

Thanks again...r

No need for voters to physically Vote when new Diebold Vote Prediction
Technology will automatically generate a required Electoral
Result....>99%

Whatever they may claim, doers of harm or evil deeds will be
annihilated.  Psalms 37;9,10,12 28.  Revelation 9;21..16;9. What will
happen to all the bodies of those done away with?.. The birds of the
earth will pick their bones. Revelation 19;17,21
Meek and mild people will continue to live . Psalm 37;11,34
The earth will not be destroyed by any future metoeor from space.
Psalms 37;29.."reside FOREVER upon it".
There will come to be a time when there will be NO MORE DEATH...ergo,
we will live on and on. Revelation 20;4.
The prime cause of all our troubles will be removed. Revelation 19;17, 20;1-4,10
And what should we be doing?..Hebrews 10;24...Every day is one step closer.

probonopublico---thanks!  I personally think Diebold should combine
their ATMs with the Electoral College.  That way, you could get 10
bucks at 7-11 while practicing geopolitics.

Thanks again!
Big Gulp

pugwashjw----thanks for your comments.  I just listened to a cassette
by Missler:  "Strategic Trends 2004."  He believes the rising European
Union and the non-aggression pact between Russia and China are
foretold by John in Revelation.

I do not believe his Biblical reasoning is well-grounded.  But it is fascinating.

Thanks again!
ron

Hiya Ron,

Glad to see you have surfaced from your entrepreneurial endeavours for a bit.

I had hoped to contribute to your excellent question, but it appears
to remain beyond my capacity given the quality of great answers you
already have.
Very interesting as they lead to other questions and learning. 

Thanks for your info on the Stock Market Charts in relation to my
question on Phi. I had vaguely heard of this. Must get my brother to
check it out. I wonder how close the Fundamentalists and Analysts may
arrive at a similar answer to decisions on investment.

Would you care to contribute to
http://answers.google.com/answers/threadview?id=444603 ? I would be
keen to hear what you have to say.

I trust that you had an enjoyable Christmas.

All the best, Phil

Hi Pugwash,

How was your Christmas?

Ron's question was specific about 2025. Are you suggesting that all
you have described will occur by then?

Phil

Elvis returns and he looks grrrreat                 < 1%

Elvis returns and he looks awwwwful                 > 97%

Awe, silver777, that was mean :) JW's don't celebrate Christmas. Or
birthdays. The former because it's the wrong day, the latter because
everyone who ever celebrated birthdays in the bible beheaded someone.

On topic: I learned something watching poker... Regardless of
probability, the chances of getting the card you need are 50% - It
either happens or it doesn't.

Crythias .. ???????

Ron,

I would love to take a shot at this if you ever repost the question. I
enjoy making predictions. And if I predict things that will happen
twenty years from now, I have a lot of lead time before I look
foolish. ;-)

~Pink

Pink, don't forget about the best part of making predictions... you
have 20 years to make them happen too :)

Silver777: 8-) JW: Jehovah's Witnesses. Don't worry, I'm just pullin'
your leg about being mean to pugwashJW-ga.  And if pugwashjw-ga isn't
a JW, then my sincere apologies all around.

Chrythias,

Thanks for the clarification. You had me there, as no disrespect intended.

Phil

Hi Ron,

Thanks for your visit to my question #444603. I left you a note.

Kind regards, Phil

Hi PinkFreud!

I now have 200 bullets from leapinglizard.  But if I decide to pursue
more, I will definitely shoot the question in your direction.

Warm regards (always),
ron