Hi There !

I am working on a long-range forecasting project.  This GA consists of
two intertwined questions:

1.  Why do civilizations collapse?   (Need 20 ideas total)
2.  What unusual contingencies may the U.S. government have in the
planning stage?  (Need 23 ideas total)

Here's what I've devised thus far:

Why do civilizations collapse?   (Need 20 ideas total)

1.  Inter-national war
2.  Intra-national war
3.  Exhaustion of natural resources
4.  Imperial overstretch
5.  Bankruptcy
6.  Conquered by other civilizations
7.  Natural disaster
8.  Disease
9.  Population decline
10. Other demographic problems
11. Failure of agriculture
12. Military disintegration
13.
etc.


What highly unusual contingency plans may the U.S. government hold in
secret?  (Need 19 ideas total)

1.  Nuclear attack on the U.S.
2.  Biological attack
3.  Chemical attack
4.  Dirty bomb in New York City
5.  Massive natural disaster in California
6.  Breakdown of law and order
7.  Suspension of the U.S. constitution
8.  Arrival of beings from another planet
9.  Global warming floods coastal cities
10. Alliance of China, India, & Russia into a single power bloc
etc.
etc.


You get the idea.  I don't much care about contingency plans for
something routine like "Abnormal Influenza Epidemic."  Rather, I am
looking for wacky (1 in 100,000) possibilities where planning may have
already been accomplished by the government.

Please note this is an economic forecasting project.  Hence, political
developments, social developments, medical developments, etc. are
*not* the primary goal.  Rather, I am interested in any contingency
which might seriously disrupt economic development.

Also, please note no web sites are supporting documentation required. 
I am simply looking for one-liner opinions-----unusual and odd items
would be terrific!

All comments greatly appreciated---epsecially out-of-the-box observations!

Thanks.
ron

G'day Ron,

I just had to say Hi and book mark your interesting question. It's way
out of my depth, but I will follow the comments and hopefully see a
good answer here too for my own learning from the back stalls.

My immediate thought to your first question was about women. Not so
much in regard to the collapse of a society, but control of global
decisions made by men. Who was it who incited other women to withold
sex from their husbands unless they stopped warring? Was that a myth
or a true yarn? If it was true, it gives a whole new meaning to
"equality chicks" .. don't you think?

I'll shut up now and listen in. 

All the best, Phil

Hi, Ron

Here's another for your list: Geomagnetic Reversal.

As you know, the poles have reversed from time to time: North becomes
South and vice versa.

Previously, this has taken ages to come about and only the dinosaurs
noticed and they didn't care.

Scientists are assuming that once again this will happen at a
leisurely pace but supposing it were to happen overnight?

And with lots of info held on magnetic media, then Debits could become
Credits so that wealthy guys (like you) could find their Bank Deposits
converted into Overdrafts.

And those of us shackled with huge debts (like the US Government and
me) could find our borrowings converted into assets. Wow!

This has been discussed previously on GA ...

Please put it AT THE VERY TOP of your list.

All the Best

Bryan

Add poisoning to your first list.

The decline of the Roman civilization is sometimes attributed to their
use of lead pipes to deliver water, and the subsequent wholesale lead
poisining that resulted.

True?  I dunno.  But put it on the list anyway.

paf

13. Decadence (Gibbon)
14. Mass emigration (Brain drain, Goldrush, Genocide)
15. There were probably civilizations before the last ice age


11. Emergence of a credible 'Messiah'
12. Canaries rock causes East Coast Tsunami
13. Other species turn predator ( The Birds )
14. Mass emergence of mutant humans - telepathy/genius IQ
15. Discovery of cheap universal source of power
16. Discovery of anti-gravity
17. Germany quits Europe - joins Russia etc - over Turkey in EC
18. Hackers wipe out all banking records 
19. Rogue economic theory takes root eg: wealth is what you directly control
20. Machine trading systems perfected - like the Chess machines
21. China starts playing currency markets
22. Anti-agarthic (aging) drug discovered - or rejuvenation
23. 'Taxation without representation' - non voters refuse to pay taxes
24. HIV variant transmitted by insects (like Nile disease)
25. HIV variant transmitted by water droplets (eg: like flu)
26. Cheap 'thinking machines' developed - robots
27. Agrarian Cult takes root - possibly via movie(s)
28. Huge influx of undetectable forged currency
29. Psychedelic drug producing fungi infest water supply 
30. Cloud seeding experiment becomes self perpetuating
31. Scientists 'clone from scratch' - androids
32. More Red Sea scrolls discovered - confuse Christians
33. Cheap nuclear fusion - element manufacture - mining redundant
34. Mass voluntary bankruptcy movement
35. Cocaine (or other) derivative that demonstrably raises IQ
36. Consumers go retro - eg: prefer old goods to new - cars, clothing ...
37. Mass birth defects - no known cause
38. Doolittle factor - means of communicating with animals found
39. US Military perform coup d'etat
40. Rare substance found in tarmacadam - thieves rip up roads

G'day Phil!

Women withholding sex?  Well, it's happened at least twice in history:  
(1) Lysistrata (Aristophanes) in 375 BC
(2) my ex-wife in 1991 AD


heh  heh  hee  hee  I'm killing myself over here!

Thanks as always for your comments, Phil!
ron

Ron --

I'm surprised that you've left out "I don't much care about
contingency plans for something routine like 'Abnormal Influenza
Epidemic.'  A recent piece in the New Yorker said that given the way
that the way flu viruses mutate, it's not a matter of IF but WHEN the
next major epidemic kills millions.  In addition, logistically it
takes a long time (at least a year) to develop the flu vaccines
necessary to fight the epidemic.  The mobility of modern society (see
the SARS epidemic) makes it possible for these epidemics to have an
impact over a large area, one which could effect economies, military
strength, and isolated populations.

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

Probonopublico-hohoho,

Your comments always crack me up!

I have in fact gone from bank credits to bank overdrafts overnight. 
And when I explained the whole Geomagnetic Reversal Thing (GRT), my
bankers were not amused.  heh  heh  heh

Thanks again for writing!
ron

Pafalafa,

Outstanding point!

Thank you.
ron

frde,

Excellent!   Please post as an answer so I can pay you.

Thanks!
ron

P.S.   What does frde stand for?   (I may be too young to know...)

omnivorous----whoops!   You are completely right...as usual!
(Don't tell me if you've ever been wrong;  I want to keep you on a pedestal.)

I will definitely include your incisive comments in my report.

Thanks again!
ron

Ron,

I'm not a Google Answers Researcher - just a member of the peanut gallery

However, your question intrigued me, and got me pondering.
Apologies to GA's

Regards - Jerry

hi nron, or is it Enron?  ha, just kidding . . .

anyway, I thought this fellows' book might be of interest to you,
though not-so-whacky . . .

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0670033375/qid=1108538016/sr=2-1/ref=pd_ka_b_2_1/102-6224818-6977768

best,

ts

OK, so you want an authoritative read then get:

The Rise and Fall of Civilisation; an Inquiry into the Relationship
between Economic Development and Civilisation by Shepard B. Clough.
(London Skeffinton 1953).

The author correlates the rise of culture to the fall of civilisations.

So, in the US, the Rise of Coca Cola and Big Macs (the only native
culture) are clearly precursors for the forthcoming Fall.

Be Warned! 

The Good Shepard has spoken.

Terrific ideas, Jerry!

You have a very creative mind.

Thanks again!
Ron

Timespacette,

Thanks a million!   I enjoyed Mr. Diamond's earlier book, "Guns,
Germs, and Steel."  I'll get this new book right away.

Thanks again!
ron

Probonopublico,

Thanks for the Clough reference.  You are always very "beneficial to
the public"...and to me!

Thanks again.
ron

Ron --

A current article about flu pandemics:
http://www.newyorker.com/online/content/index.ssf?050228on_onlineonly01

Best regards,

Omnivorous-GA

@omnivorous-ga 

They are not Pandemics

SARS was trivial and seemed to be racially orientated (sic)

The Bird Flu has not yet burst out
- I (ahem) understand that the strain has been isolated and vaccines are available

When we do get a pandemic, we'll not be here to talk about it.