I've seen a matrix, either 3x3 or 4x4, that's similar to a 2x2 Ansoff
Matrix on which the "x" axis reflects likelihood of market success,
and the "y" axis the likelihood of product success or risk.  As I
recall the percentages, the current product, sold to a current market
reflected a likelihood of success of "1" (100%)as the new market/new
product ranged further from base, the likelihood of success diminished
(e.g., newer product to existing market: .5, existing product to newer
market: .5 or 50% likelihood of success).  By the time a completely
new product reached a completely new market the likelihood of success
was ~ .01, 1%, or even less.  This is my "question":I would like to
get a copy of this matrix - with the official percentages, and
attribution source.

In 1994 Oxford Innovation Ltd did some work for Heeart of England
Training and Enterprise Council in which they built on the Ansoff
Matrix along thelines described in this query. It was called an
Innovation Action Toolkit. There were 2 versions of the product-market
matrix, one 2x2 and one 3x3. They did not specify acny statistically
significant probabilities, but the focus was on risk.

All this is still available from
http://www.oxin.co.uk/bussupp/toolkits.php. Hope that helps.

INcidentally, I wuld have called this an asnwer but am not sure how to
do answers! Happy to do it for free - if this answer helps you please
spend the $25 on a charity of your choice.

As a marketing graduate I will give you a fabulous resource:

http://www.valuebasedmanagement.net/

It's bliss if you love your business matrices 

ciao

lote_tree-ga and smartyg-ga, sorry I didn't realize you had
"commented" a while ago.  While neither valuebasedmanagement.net nor
xin.co.uk/bussupp/toolkits.php had what I was looking for I do
appreciate your taking the time to respond.  Must say,
valuebasedmanagement.net, is a phenomenal agglomeration of matrices,
etc., thanks for the resource, lote_tree-ga! Mimi