The wireless LAN market has been under active development for more
than 10 years, initially with 2Mbps 802.11 standards that saw many
companies (such as Motorola) enter -- then leave -- the business.
WiFi or 802.11b at 11 Mbps has been the latest incarnation, especially
since Microsoft and Intel began to co-develop the Bluetooth technology
in 1998.
WiFIiSEMICONDUCTOR UNITS/PRICES
-------------------------------
Though Bluetooth is late, there's lots of interest in forecasts and
pricing. Xilinx, a supplier of one of the four semiconductor
technologies being used in development of Bluetooth, forecasts these
units and OEM semiconductor pricing:
2002: $17, 121 million units
2003: $8
2004: $7
2005: $6, 1.1 billion units
The semiconductor process technologies competing for WiFi design wins
are silicon-on-insulator (SOI); RF-CMOS; BiCMOS and gallenium arsenide
(GaAs). The Xilinx forecast in in it's "Bluetooth Introduction"
(undated) contains excellent breakdowns by
cellular/mobile/desktop/access point markets and is available here:
http://www.xilinx.com/esp/bluetooth/tutorials/intro.htm
IDC notes the notorious delays in the Bluetooth, but predicts growth
for semiconductors from $76.6 million in 2001 to $2.6 billion by 2006.
As with the Xilinx report, cellular handsets are the largest market
-- though IDC predicts headsets for cellphone will be 2nd (followed by
desktop PCs, notebook PCs and accessories). The IDC report is
"Wordwide Bluetooth Semiconductor Market Forecast and Analysis,
2001-2006" (June 2002):
http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jhtml?containerId=27462
Aberdeen Group says that long-term growth will be good but that the
"market faces imminent consolidation" as more than 25 vendors compete
for business that actually shrank in 2001. The market for chips was
down last year to $240 million, a decline of 5%, according to "Only
Focused WiFi-x IC suppliers will Prosper" (April, 2002):
http://www.aberdeen.com/2001/research/04020010.asp
Aberdeen's report, "Achieving differentiated WiFi IC offerings"
(April, 2001) is an interesting analysis of semiconductor firms'
positioning:
http://www.aberdeen.com/2001/research/04020011.asp
WiFi IN LANS
--------------
Your original question asked about home vs. office use of WiFi for
LANs. The closest that publicly available data comes is total market
size. Growth for these wireless LANs will be 30% per year for the
next 4 years, according to Aberdeen, with a $890 million semiconductor
market in 2006. In a separate report, done at the same time, Aberdeen
also warns that alternate technologies may prevent WiFi from ever
really taking hold:
http://www.aberdeen.com/2001/research/04020012.asp
The Wi-Fi market continues to expand. According to Cahners In-Stat
Group, more than ten million Wi-Fi products will be installed by the
end of this year. Frost & Sullivan forecasts Wi-Fi manufacturers'
revenues to reach $884 million by the end of 2002.
In-Stat/MDR gives some estimates of residential market size, saying
that subscriptions to fixed wireless broadband in the U.S. will grow
from approximately 338K in the end of 2001 to 3.1 million by the end
of 2006. Over this time period, licensed-exempt services will have the
greatest growth with residential subscribers growing from 123K in 2001
to almost 2.5 million by 2006.
Cahners forecast for units (April 2002) from The Economist:
http://www.economist.com/business/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1067140
According to "The Wireless LAN Report" by U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray
Equity Research, 802.11b technology offers compelling value in
enterprise, public and home LAN environments. The bottom line: "We
believe the industry is currently reaching a major inflection point
for widespread adoption, which leads us to leave this overall message
to service providers and major communications OEMs - 802.11b is a
disruptive technology. Get on the train, or get hit by the train."
Piper Jaffray's press release on "The Wireless LAN Report, 802.11 -
Disruptive Technology" (Aug. 7, 2002):
http://www.gotoanalysts.com/piperpublic/goto/features/feature_wLAN.asp
The Strategis Group (Japan) has done a detailed study, which predicts
that the U.S. will have more than 23 million homes networked by 2006
and will lead world in penetration of home nets, primarily via
wireless technologies. The report, "Global Home Networking: Wireless
LANs and Wired Alternatives" (November, 2001) is $2,750:
http://www.dri.co.jp/strate/ghomenw01.htm
WIFI AND SERVICE NETWORKS
-------------------------
There is lots of speculation on home vs. office vs. WiFi service
networks. E-Business has a good overview:
http://www.ebstrategy.com/Books/M-Business/RevenueModel/802.11b_WiFi.html
So too does Business Week in a recent article, "All Net, All the Time"
(April 29, 2002): http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_17/b3780009.htm
80211planet.com has some good information on the "community" networks,
which are appearing at airports and even Starbucks. The piece,
"802.11 Take Center Stage" (June 7, 2002) notes that IDC estimates
there are over 3,000 hotspots, a number forecasted to grow to 40,000
in 2006:
http://www.80211-planet.com/news/article.php/1355221
The most high-profile business trying to make money off the explosion
of hotspots was Wi-Fi provider MobileStar Network, which inked a pact
in January 2001 with Starbucks. Instead of becoming Wi-Fi's Amazon,
MobileStar was destined to be its Kozmo. In October 2001, after
running through $60 million in venture funding, the company filed for
bankruptcy.
A final report on WiFi is NOT available on the Internet, but a Wall
Street Transcript Corp. interview with Dataquest analyst Joseph Byrne.
The interview, "WiFi and Wireless LAN Technologies" (May, 2002)
notes:
"Then there's another sizable step down when you get to the component
level. So there tends to be more value on the services side of things.
This market is a little different in that it's going to have a lot of
utility in the enterprise, which doesn't really have that services
component. It's different in that way. The big issues for potential
investors in a WLAN chipset supplier are expectations for market
success and expectations of a liquidity event. The chipset market is
highly competitive. The market in 2001 was highly concentrated, with
Intersil (ISIL) (TWST CEO Interview published 9/12/2001) having a
greater than 50% market share and Agere (AGRA) and Philips (PHG)
accounting for most of the rest of the market."
Next 12-24 months "The emergence of low-cost ($10-$20) dual-protocol
802.11a/802.11b chipsets will be an important milestone"
Google search strategy:
WiFi + semiconductors
WiFi + applications
WiFi + home + forecasts
Also be sure to use Google's site search capabilities (via advanced
search, the Google Toolbar or command line) to poke your way through
semiconductor supplier sites. There are often market analyses there
that aren't indexed on the company's web page.
Best regards,
Omnivorous-GA |
